Here are some of the stories that have some economic significance for northern Ontario over the last week that managed to catch my interest It was for the most part a relatively quiet week. Enjoy.
Investments in First Nations Infrastructure and Economies. Net News Ledger. February 25th, 2017.
Community accepts $99M settlement deal. Chronicle Journal. February 25th, 2017.
This settlement provides resources for the long-term economic sustainability of Fort William First Nation. Investing the funds in an endowment would generate a stream of income in perpetuity available for investment in economic, social and infrastructure projects.
Marshalls coming to Thunder Bay in 2018. Tbnewswatch. February 24th, 2017.
Time to reignite Ring of Fire. Sudbury Star. February 25th, 2017.
This one is an op-ed from one of the many candidates currently running for leadership of the Federal Conservative Party. It might be interesting if not entertaining to hear what Kevin O'Leary thinks about the Ring of Fire as a viable business proposition.
Local economy needs immigration, forum hears. Saultthisweek.com. February 21st, 2017.
DSSAB issue dividing region. Timminspress.com. February 24th, 2017.
Expect these types of cost-sharing issues to become more common around the north given declining urban populations and rising taxes.
Brace for impact of U.S. softwood lumber duties. Northern Ontario Business. February 22nd, 2017.
Again, it is difficult to know where this issue might go. We may get some insight on Canada in the world of Donald Trump from Derek Burney at his talk this week in Thunder Bay.
Northern Economist 2.0
Saturday 25 February 2017
Friday 17 February 2017
Fiscal Comparisons for Major Northern Ontario Cities
The results of the 2016 Census for major northern Ontario
cities draws attention to what I think is growing evidence that high and rising
municipal property tax and user charge burdens have been inducing tax migration
to surrounding lower tax townships and municipalities. In many respects, northern Ontario
cities are in a tough spot given that they have declining tax bases as a result
of weak economic growth, dispersed urban areas to serve, weak population growth,
and fixed costs and obligations to comply with provincial legislation affecting
municipalities.
Thursday 16 February 2017
Economic News Around the North: February 17th Edition
Here is listing of some news stories across northern Ontario
over the last few days that I feel are of some economic significance for the
region. There was actually quite a
bit going on. Have a nice weekend.
Monday 13 February 2017
Why the North's Cities are Losing Population
Everyone is still pretty much digesting last week's census results and the news that many northern Ontario's cities actually lost population. Of course, the immediate gut reaction to the population decline of what are supposed to be the regional magnets for growth will focus on a slow economy as well as cries that the provincial government needs to do something. I think its important to think more carefully about what actually is happening given that northern Ontario as a whole actually saw a slight population increase. Here is my take on what some of the factors may be.
Friday 10 February 2017
Economic News Around the North: February 10th Edition
Here is a listing of some of the major news stories around northern Ontario this week that in my view have some economic significance for the region. Of course, much of the week's news was dominated by the release of the 2016 Census population counts. Most of the stories in the regional media focused on local results (major centers actually saw declines) and there was little in the way of putting the results together for northern Ontario as a whole - though you can always see my post on the regional perspective. Enjoy and have a nice weekend.
Preparing Northern Ontario for the Future. Government of Ontario News. February 8th, 2017.
This was an item that does not seem to have been picked up by regional media but then despite the title of the release the actual report was a long-term report on Ontario's economy. The long and short - population and economic growth are being concentrated in the GTA.
Population decline is a Northern Ontario thing, says mayor. Timmins Today. February 9th, 2017.
Thunder Bay's population experiencing low growth. TBnewswatch. February 9th, 2017.
City Stalled; Stagnant growth, aging population present economic challenges. Chronicle-Journal. February 9th, 2017.
While the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (up 25 people from 2011), the city itself saw the loss of 450 people. However, it should be noted that in this story, Thunder Bay's Mayor was optimistic about the Ring of Fire and admitted being surprised by the numbers given that there had been indications of heightened economic activity like more building permits. Given that the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (0% growth), surrounding municipalities like Neebing (3.5%), Oliver Paipoonge (3.3%) and Shuniah (2.2%) saw increases, and the City of Thunder Bay fell (-0.4%), one wonders if the Mayor is willing to draw any insights from the Tiebout Model of migration as to why people have essentially been leaving the city but population in surrounding areas has been growing? I'd explain more but my time is limited. Looking for analysis? Hey, where is that research chair on the northern Ontario economy?
Sudbury's economic outlook positive. Sudbury.com. February 9th, 2017.
Mayor optimistic, despite weak population growth. Sudbury Star. February 9th, 2017.
Census. Thousands leave northern Ontario cities over last 5 years. CBC News Sudbury. February 9th, 2017.
Greater Sudbury is growing, but more people moving to the outskirts. CBC News Sudbury. February 9th, 2017.
Well, despite Tiebout effects, Sudbury is still growing.
North Bay's population down 3.9%-census. North Bay Nugget. February 8th, 2017.
Mayor confused by decline in North Bay's population. North Bay Nugget. February 8th, 2017.
I am not confused at all. Despite the increase in construction and building permits, there is really only so much government building projects can do. Sometimes, you need a surge in private sector investment too.
Census data shows Sault population declining. Sault Star. February 8th, 2017.
How on earth did Jocelyn Township's population grow one-third in five years? SOOToday. February 10th, 2017.
Sounds like more insights from the Tiebout Model in the Sault also.
Preparing Northern Ontario for the Future. Government of Ontario News. February 8th, 2017.
This was an item that does not seem to have been picked up by regional media but then despite the title of the release the actual report was a long-term report on Ontario's economy. The long and short - population and economic growth are being concentrated in the GTA.
Population decline is a Northern Ontario thing, says mayor. Timmins Today. February 9th, 2017.
Thunder Bay's population experiencing low growth. TBnewswatch. February 9th, 2017.
City Stalled; Stagnant growth, aging population present economic challenges. Chronicle-Journal. February 9th, 2017.
While the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (up 25 people from 2011), the city itself saw the loss of 450 people. However, it should be noted that in this story, Thunder Bay's Mayor was optimistic about the Ring of Fire and admitted being surprised by the numbers given that there had been indications of heightened economic activity like more building permits. Given that the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (0% growth), surrounding municipalities like Neebing (3.5%), Oliver Paipoonge (3.3%) and Shuniah (2.2%) saw increases, and the City of Thunder Bay fell (-0.4%), one wonders if the Mayor is willing to draw any insights from the Tiebout Model of migration as to why people have essentially been leaving the city but population in surrounding areas has been growing? I'd explain more but my time is limited. Looking for analysis? Hey, where is that research chair on the northern Ontario economy?
Sudbury's economic outlook positive. Sudbury.com. February 9th, 2017.
Mayor optimistic, despite weak population growth. Sudbury Star. February 9th, 2017.
Census. Thousands leave northern Ontario cities over last 5 years. CBC News Sudbury. February 9th, 2017.
Greater Sudbury is growing, but more people moving to the outskirts. CBC News Sudbury. February 9th, 2017.
Well, despite Tiebout effects, Sudbury is still growing.
North Bay's population down 3.9%-census. North Bay Nugget. February 8th, 2017.
Mayor confused by decline in North Bay's population. North Bay Nugget. February 8th, 2017.
I am not confused at all. Despite the increase in construction and building permits, there is really only so much government building projects can do. Sometimes, you need a surge in private sector investment too.
Census data shows Sault population declining. Sault Star. February 8th, 2017.
How on earth did Jocelyn Township's population grow one-third in five years? SOOToday. February 10th, 2017.
Sounds like more insights from the Tiebout Model in the Sault also.
Wednesday 8 February 2017
2016 Census of Canada: Northern Ontario Results
Well, the population counts of the 2016 Census of Canada were released by Statistics Canada today and there is an odd assortment of results for northern Ontario that are both good and bad. Canada's population in 2016 was 35,151,728 - an increase of 5 percent from 2011 - while Ontario's population was 13,448,494 - an increase of 4.6% from 2011. Northern Ontario's population actually grew between 2011 and 2016 from 775,178 to reach 780,140 for an increase of 0.64 percent.
Tuesday 7 February 2017
Some Federal Fiscal Highlights
I have a new report out by the Fraser Institute in celebration of Canada's 150th Anniversary. It is titled A Federal Fiscal History: Canada, 1867 to 2017 and tracks federal government spending, revenue, deficits, debt and spending and revenue composition from 1867 to 2017. You can get the executive summary and the full report here. However, is a quick round-up of some federal fiscal highlights over the years:
Friday 3 February 2017
Economic News Around the North: February 3rd Edition
Here are some stories over the last week from across northern Ontario that I feel have some significance for the region's economy. Have a nice weekend.
What the Finns can offer Northern Ontario's biomass economy. Northern Ontario Business. Jan 27th, 2017.
Thunder Bay and Fort William First Nation partner on economic development. Northern Ontario Business. February 2nd, 2017.
City to push economic development at ROMA. North Bay Nugget. January 29th, 2017.
Ring of Fire mining development still years away from delivering on a decade of hype. CBC Thunder Bay, January 30th, 2017.
Province pulls plug on loan program. Sault Star. February 2nd, 2017.
Sudbury a magnet for newcomers. Sudbury Star. February 1st, 2017.
And for those of you who believe that politics and institutions are important to economic performance, two stories of interest this week.
First, while its not yet Easter, there is this resurrection (It must be a slow news week in Sudbury):
We're one Ontario, says Wynne. Dismisses separation effort. Sudbury.com. January 27, 2017.
And for those of you who believe that the context of leadership does matter and that government leadership should aspire to formal and decorous behavior in order to help foster a community environment attractive to business and economic activity, there are these:
Hobbs sues Zaitzeff over YouTube video. Tbnewswatch. February 2, 2017.
Hobbs serves notice against Zaitzeff. Chronicle Journal. February 1, 2017.
What the Finns can offer Northern Ontario's biomass economy. Northern Ontario Business. Jan 27th, 2017.
Thunder Bay and Fort William First Nation partner on economic development. Northern Ontario Business. February 2nd, 2017.
City to push economic development at ROMA. North Bay Nugget. January 29th, 2017.
Ring of Fire mining development still years away from delivering on a decade of hype. CBC Thunder Bay, January 30th, 2017.
Province pulls plug on loan program. Sault Star. February 2nd, 2017.
Sudbury a magnet for newcomers. Sudbury Star. February 1st, 2017.
And for those of you who believe that politics and institutions are important to economic performance, two stories of interest this week.
First, while its not yet Easter, there is this resurrection (It must be a slow news week in Sudbury):
We're one Ontario, says Wynne. Dismisses separation effort. Sudbury.com. January 27, 2017.
And for those of you who believe that the context of leadership does matter and that government leadership should aspire to formal and decorous behavior in order to help foster a community environment attractive to business and economic activity, there are these:
Hobbs sues Zaitzeff over YouTube video. Tbnewswatch. February 2, 2017.
Hobbs serves notice against Zaitzeff. Chronicle Journal. February 1, 2017.
Wednesday 1 February 2017
Demographics in Northern Ontario: Getting Ready for Census 2016
On February 8th, Statistics Canada is expected to
release the Population and Dwelling Counts for the 2016 Census. This is of interest everywhere but no
more so than in northern Ontario where the 2011 Census registered population
declines from 2006. Indeed, the
long-term trend has been for a shrinking population in northern Ontario both in
absolute numbers and as share of Ontario’s population. In 1976, northern Ontario (Algoma,
Cochrane, Kenora, Manitoulin, Muskoka, Nipissing, Parry Sound, Rainy River,
Sudbury [District & Regional Municipality], Thunder Bay & Temiskaming)
accounted for about 10 percent of Ontario’s population whereas by 2011 it was
down to 6 percent.
Friday 27 January 2017
Economic News Around the North: January 27th Edition
Here are some new items that I found to be of interest with respect to the economy of northern Ontario over the last week or so. Some are not quite what they seem - North Bay (and Thunder Bay) do well by not making this list. Have a nice weekend. Livio.
New Veterans Affairs office opens in Thunder Bay. CBC News, Jan. 26, 2017
5 Things to know about Thunder Bay's proposed city budget. CBC News, Jan 24, 2017.
Tax levy could rise by millions. Chronicle Journal, Jan 24, 2017.
Steel, hub important to Ontario, Wynne tells mayor. Sault Star, Jan 26, 2017.
Mineral exploration on the rebound. Northern Ontario Business. Jan 26, 2017
Putting a value on the North's assets. Northern Ontario business. Jan 24, 2017.
Proposed Sudbury arena would be a "showpiece of Northern Ontario" sudbury.com, January 26, 2017.
North Bay fails to crack list of top 25 cities. North Bay Nugget. Jan 27, 2017.
New Veterans Affairs office opens in Thunder Bay. CBC News, Jan. 26, 2017
5 Things to know about Thunder Bay's proposed city budget. CBC News, Jan 24, 2017.
Tax levy could rise by millions. Chronicle Journal, Jan 24, 2017.
Steel, hub important to Ontario, Wynne tells mayor. Sault Star, Jan 26, 2017.
Mineral exploration on the rebound. Northern Ontario Business. Jan 26, 2017
Putting a value on the North's assets. Northern Ontario business. Jan 24, 2017.
Proposed Sudbury arena would be a "showpiece of Northern Ontario" sudbury.com, January 26, 2017.
North Bay fails to crack list of top 25 cities. North Bay Nugget. Jan 27, 2017.
Thursday 26 January 2017
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative Named a Top Blog
FocusEconomics has put together its list of the Top Economics and Finance Blogs of 2017 and Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, where I blog with Stephen Gordon, Nick Rowe and Frances Woolley, has made the list. The list of 101 economics and finance blogs was compiled by the FocusEconomics team of economists. The criteria for inclusion in the list was simply that they had to have regularly blogged in 2016 and that they needed to be English-language blogs. The list is an eclectic mix of policy and economic viewpoints stretching from the Keynesian school to the Chicago school to the Austrian school and everything in between. Delighted at the recognition (as well as the additional link provided to Northern Economist!)
Tuesday 24 January 2017
Do Municipalities Really Need New Revenue Tools?
Municipalities in Ontario have been agitating for new revenues particularly given the sluggish growth in provincial government grants. Well, apparently at least one municipal councilor in Thunder
Bay also believes that cities need more revenue tools. This is in spite of the evidence that Ontario municipalities
have seen their revenues grow quite robustly over time. According to the Financial InformationReturns maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs, between 2000
and 2015, total municipal revenues in Ontario more than doubled growing from
$22.7 billion to $47.8 billion. While
the growth rate has slowed somewhat since the 2009 recession, it remains that
since 2000 these revenues have grown at an annual average rate of 5.2 percent. This is much faster than either
Ontario’s population or GDP growth.
Monday 23 January 2017
Northern Economist Visiting NOSM
I will be visiting the Thunder Bay Campus of the Northern Ontario School of Medicine on January 26th to give a seminar in the Human Science Seminar Series. My talk will overview trends in health spending in Canada over the longer-term and provide some recent estimates of aggregate value for money from this spending. Looking forward to the visit.
Friday 20 January 2017
Economic News Around the North: January 20th, Edition
Here is a listing of some stories around northern Ontario
over the last few days of economic significance for the region. Congratulations to Thunder Bay International Airport and Laurentian University for their milestones. Enjoy.
Thunder Bay Airport Sets New Passenger Record, Tbnewswatch, January 16, 2017.
Laurentian celebrates official opening of School of Architecture, sudbury.com, January 19th, 2017
Sudbury businesses question if labour law changes are necessary. Northern Ontario Business, January 16, 2017.
Carbon bill hits city hall. Chronicle-Journal, January 16, 2017.
Good news for Sudbury on jobs front. Sudbury Star, January 13th, 2017.
Energy costs continue to be a concern across the north. SooToday, January 18, 2017.
FedNor invests $460,000 into Nipissing, Parry Sound, Muskoka economy. NorthBayNipissing.com, January 19, 2017.
NWO First Nations drop injunction bid against pipeline work. Tbnewswatch, January 19, 2017.
Thursday 19 January 2017
Employment Growth Strongest in Ontario’s Golden Triangle: How the Major CMAs Stack Up
Employment is always an important indicator of economic
growth and success and the figure below provides a good perspective on how some
of Ontario’s major centers are doing when it comes to job creation. Employment data from Statistics Canada
is used to compare total employment growth between 2001 and 2016 for 15 major
CMAs. These major CMAs are ranked
from highest to lowest and their employment growth ranges from a high of 38.8
percent for Oshawa to a low of -2.4 percent for Thunder Bay.
Monday 16 January 2017
Falling Use, Rising Price: A Modern Lament
This morning's Thunder Bay paper featured a municipal councilor lamenting that the new provincial cap-and-trade policy will add at least $375,000 to the City of Thunder Bay's energy bill. According to the councilor: “It’s very frustrating because we reduce consumption substantially and then bingo, it’s gone.” As the story notes, the city’s finance department in November
projected the legislation will lead to a $200,000 increase to natural
gas, $150,000 for diesel fuel and $25,000 to gasoline based on estimates
of 3.3 cents per cubic metre of natural gas, 4.7 cents per litre for
diesel and 4.3 cents per litre for gasoline.
Friday 13 January 2017
Recent Economic News Around Northern Ontario
Here is a listing of some stories out in the north over the last few days of economic significance for the economy of northern Ontario and its residents. Enjoy.
Economic Growth Minimal - The Chronicle Journal, January 11, 2017
Business for the Arts - Netnewsledger, January 12, 2017
Should Timmins Have a University? - Sudbury.com, January 12, 2017
Legend Boat gets FedNor boost - Sudbury Star, January 11, 2017.
Economists to Share Trump Ideas with Morneau. North Bay Nipissing.com, January 12, 2017.
In Wynne's world Ontario is just fine. January 8, 2017.
Rubicon goes back to the drawing board. Northern Ontario Business, January 10, 2017.
Foresters seek common ground on endangered species management. Northern Ontario Business, January 9, 2017.
Economic Growth Minimal - The Chronicle Journal, January 11, 2017
Business for the Arts - Netnewsledger, January 12, 2017
Should Timmins Have a University? - Sudbury.com, January 12, 2017
Legend Boat gets FedNor boost - Sudbury Star, January 11, 2017.
Economists to Share Trump Ideas with Morneau. North Bay Nipissing.com, January 12, 2017.
In Wynne's world Ontario is just fine. January 8, 2017.
Rubicon goes back to the drawing board. Northern Ontario Business, January 10, 2017.
Foresters seek common ground on endangered species management. Northern Ontario Business, January 9, 2017.
Wednesday 11 January 2017
Building Permits Down
Statistics Canada has just released its building permit results for November of 2016 and the numbers are down overall largely as a result of a decline in construction intentions in Alberta. According to Statistics Canada:
In the residential sector, the value of building permits fell 1.6% to $5.1 billion in November, following three consecutive monthly increases. Declines were posted in four provinces, led by Alberta. The largest gains were posted in British Columbia and Quebec. The value of non-residential building permits rose 3.0% to $2.6 billion in November, the fourth increase in five months. Higher construction intentions were registered in five provinces, led by Quebec and Ontario. The largest decline was reported in Alberta.
The interesting results are for Census Metropolitan areas as the value of building permits was down in 16 of 34 census metropolitan areas for the month of November. Both of the major northern Ontario CMAs - Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay - registered decreases in November from October at 61.6 percent in Thunder Bay and 5.9 percent in Sudbury.
When November 2015 to November 2016 is examined, over the course of the year Moncton registered the largest increase at 227 percent while Brantford saw the largest decrease (See Figure). Over this same period, Thunder Bay saw a 49 percent decrease while Greater Sudbury saw a 19 percent decrease.
In the residential sector, the value of building permits fell 1.6% to $5.1 billion in November, following three consecutive monthly increases. Declines were posted in four provinces, led by Alberta. The largest gains were posted in British Columbia and Quebec. The value of non-residential building permits rose 3.0% to $2.6 billion in November, the fourth increase in five months. Higher construction intentions were registered in five provinces, led by Quebec and Ontario. The largest decline was reported in Alberta.
The interesting results are for Census Metropolitan areas as the value of building permits was down in 16 of 34 census metropolitan areas for the month of November. Both of the major northern Ontario CMAs - Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay - registered decreases in November from October at 61.6 percent in Thunder Bay and 5.9 percent in Sudbury.
When November 2015 to November 2016 is examined, over the course of the year Moncton registered the largest increase at 227 percent while Brantford saw the largest decrease (See Figure). Over this same period, Thunder Bay saw a 49 percent decrease while Greater Sudbury saw a 19 percent decrease.
Tuesday 10 January 2017
City Council Attendance: Another Look at the Numbers
Tbnewswatch
ran a story on Thunder Bay City Council meeting attendance halfway through the
2014 to 2018 term. There were a total of
147 open and closed meetings over a two year period and the number of meetings
missed ranged from a low of 0 for Councillor Hebert to a high of 28 for Councillor
McKinnon according to the numbers presented in a Table. Of course, comparisons are often more striking when made using a graph.
Some Fiscal Issues of Note
Budget deficits have once again reared their head as a major policy issue at the federal level which is somewhat amusing given that not too long ago, the projection was for a new age of persistent surpluses at the federal level. Not only did the incoming Liberal government immediately begin running large deficits expected to continue until the early 2020s, but the forecast has worsened to an even longer run of deficits. The most recent projection by the Federal Finance Department says we are looking at deficits at the federal level until about 2055. For my take on this, see here.
As for budgets, deficits and fiscal sustainability at the provincial level - well, Ontario is still not out of the woods yet. Health spending is a big factor. The province's Financial Accountability Office has just released a report on trends and outlook in the Ontario health sector. Ontario is restraining health sector expense growth in an effort to balance its budget by 2017-18 but according to the FAO's review of the program changes introduced: "if the Province is to meet its 2016 Ontario Budget health sector expense targets, the Province will need to implement additional program changes that result in health sector expense savings of $0.4 billion in 2016-17, $0.9 billion in 2017-18 and $1.5 billion in 2018-19." The FAO also notes that the continuation of 2% annual average growth in health spending - which is what the government is currently doing - may be difficult to sustain beyond 2018-19 if service quality and level are not to be compromised.
As for budgets, deficits and fiscal sustainability at the provincial level - well, Ontario is still not out of the woods yet. Health spending is a big factor. The province's Financial Accountability Office has just released a report on trends and outlook in the Ontario health sector. Ontario is restraining health sector expense growth in an effort to balance its budget by 2017-18 but according to the FAO's review of the program changes introduced: "if the Province is to meet its 2016 Ontario Budget health sector expense targets, the Province will need to implement additional program changes that result in health sector expense savings of $0.4 billion in 2016-17, $0.9 billion in 2017-18 and $1.5 billion in 2018-19." The FAO also notes that the continuation of 2% annual average growth in health spending - which is what the government is currently doing - may be difficult to sustain beyond 2018-19 if service quality and level are not to be compromised.
Sunday 8 January 2017
Housing Prices in Sudbury and Thunder Bay: The Boom is Over
A key feature of housing markets in Canada over the last
decade is the sustained price increases particularly in larger urban
centers such as Vancouver and Toronto. Despite a relatively flat economy and stagnant population
growth, even northern Ontario has seen a price surge in its two largest urban
housing markets: Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay. However, while Ontario’s housing price surge especially in the GTA shows little sign
of abating, it appears that economic reality may have finally caught up with
northern Ontario’s largest housing markets as prices appear set to level off.
Thursday 5 January 2017
Cap and Trade in Northern Ontario
Ontario has brought in its new cap and trade system as of January 1st. Northern Ontario is generally an energy intensive place in terms of its transportation needs as well as its industrial activity so one would expect some impact on costs. Business groups led by assorted Chambers of Commerce apparently would like to see the program delayed. In terms of the general impact on Ontario, I have a short piece here while Margaret Wente has another here. While dealing with climate change and saving the environment are important, doing it in a manner that causes more economic harm than good is not optimal policy but then Ontario has been raising the cost of doing business in the province for years and criticisms appear to be so much water off a duck's back. As for the specific effects on northern Ontario, you can check out this story on CBC regarding northeastern Ontario. Despite the optimism conveyed in this story there is a sense that there will not be a great deal of carbon emission reduction as a result. As for the northwest, another CBC story that also conveys a sense of opportunity despite the rise in costs that are anticipated given our colder winters and longer driving distances. It concludes with a quote from Chris Ragan at McGill that the impact will take a much larger bite out of lower income households.
Wednesday 4 January 2017
Why No Research Chair in Economics at Northern Ontario’s Universities?
Northern Ontario’s universities are proud of their research
intensiveness and success. Indeed, over the last decade they have made an
impressive effort to acquire the flagships of research intensity – the academic
research chair. Research chairs
highlight and foster a specific area of research importance by dedicating
specific resources to support the chair holder’s research. Along with budgets for research, these
chairs allow a professor to concentrate on research by reducing their teaching
load.
Many of the research chairs currently at northern Ontario
three largest universities - Laurentian, Lakehead, and Nipissing are funded by
the federal government via the Canada Research Chairs program. There are also other chairs that have
been funded with partnerships with other agencies and funding groups as well as
internal university resources. As
noted in a previous post there appear to be 17 such positions currently held at
Laurentian University, 16 at Lakehead University, 4 at Nipissing and one at
Algoma. Moreover, these
research chairs cover a wide range of topics stretching from applied
evolutionary ecology to indigenous health and aerial robotics.
However, there is a curious omission when it comes to these
many important topics – anything specifically to do with economics. Indeed, three important economic sub-fields
given northern Ontario’s economy are nowhere in sight: regional economics,
transportation economics and natural resource economics. Such an oversight is troubling
especially given the constant use by universities of the words “economic
development” or “economic impact” as background context whenever major research
projects or research chairs are announced.
Sunday 1 January 2017
Looking Ahead to 2017
Economic historians
will view the year 2016 as marking the end of the second great era of
globalization that began in the late 1970s and picked up speed after the fall
of the Berlin Wall. The year 2017
will usher in continuing significant economic and political change, tumult and
adjustment. The three seminal
signal events of 2016 - the Brexit vote, the election victory of Donald Trump
and the Italian referendum –herald the new era. Global economics and politics will be marked by
restraint of trade, reduced mobility, populist politics, more extremism and
continuing slow economic growth as a result.
The first great
globalization from 1870 to 1914 was marked by the spread of liberal economic
and political institutions, industrialization and rapid technological change
especially in transportation and communication. The prosperity of the pre-1914
era was marked by the centrality of Europe both economically and politically
and combined free markets and trade to create a world economy with liberal
legal and constitutional institutions in its primary economies and the British
pound as the international currency. Moreover, it was an age of free movement
not only for commodities but also in terms of labor with mass migration from
the old world to the new.
However, the pace of
rapid change and economic integration created strains in a world of nationalism
and imperial governments and the result was World War I. The years from 1914 to 1945 marked the
start of several traumatic decades in international economic and political
history that included revolutions, the rise of communism and fascism, two world
wars and the Great Depression.
A
dominant feature of the period from 1914 to 1945 was reaction to a series of
major international economic and political shocks. We are embarking on a similar period – hopefully minus the
specter of global armed conflict.
Despite the 2009 Great Recession, the world economy has
grown dramatically over the last thirty years. The prosperity of the world economy that has been driven by
free markets, technological change and the global institutions led by post
World War II America and the US dollar as the international currency has given
way to an era of multi-polar economics and politics. The rise of China and
Russia led by its business oligarchs has been aided by the liberal economic
order, which has helped grow their economies and trade. Indeed, autocratic oligarchs do well in
a world of liberal economic and democratic rules that govern everyone's
behavior but their own. Russian and Chinese business oligarchs buying property
in Europe or North America to safeguard their wealth from their own capricious
government action is the most obvious example of such behavior.
The people of the United States have now put in place their
own set of oligarchs to counter a world that seems to be increasingly at odds
with their own interests. Along with Donald Trump’s own economic status, the
composition of his incoming cabinet leans toward ex-generals and billionaires –
not much different from say how countries are run in the Middle East, never
mind Russia or China. However, once everyone behaves like the oligarchs, growth
of the economic pie will suffer.
Less liberal regimes in the rest of the world whose economies have
benefited from the economic environment maintained by the framework of American
diplomacy and power will definitely get more than they bargained for as trade
barriers rise. American
policy will become even more inward looking and more explicitly
self-interested.
The economic and technological progress of the last three
decades owes much to the economic policies of the post 1970s – liberal policies
ultimately rooted in the European Age of Enlightenment and the political
movements of the early nineteenth century. These liberal economic ideas include rule of law, free
speech, representative democracy, majority rule but respect for minority
positions, property and human rights, and the exchange of goods, capital and
labor in free markets. The result
was more trade agreements, deregulation and some effort at more efficient government.
While the results of liberal economic policies can be
imperfect and the benefits of trade and globalization unevenly spread, it
remains that a retreat into populism and tariff barriers will make us poorer in
the long run. It will take time
and tumult to illustrate the poverty of the road that the world is embarking
on. It will also take new ideas
and policies on the part of free market and liberal economic advocates on how
to better distribute the benefits of economic growth and deal with the labor
market trauma of technological and economic change that has stoked populism.
Wednesday 28 December 2016
Research Chair Infrastructure in Northern Ontario Universities: A Quick Inventory
The end of the year is a good time for taking stock and research infrastructure is something worth considering. The economic future in northern Ontario will be in services
and the knowledge economy will feature heavily in this sector. Creation of new knowledge and its application
in the servicing of population needs as well as servicing the traditional transportation
and resource sectors will be the future.
Northern Ontario universities are on the front line when it comes to
research and the knowledge economy and they have been successful in boosting
their research activity. One measure of
research success is their ability to attract funding for and then recruit
research chairs.
The role of a research chair is to boost research activity
in a specific field or specialty by providing a faculty member with concrete resources
to conduct their research as well as provide teaching release that enables them
to focus more on their research. A
research chair can often be financed by the public sector: for example, Canada Research Chairs. They can also be from private donors as the
result of fund raising activity by universities or by universities investing their
own budgetary resources.
In the case of federal Canada Research Chairs (CRC), there
are two types: Tier 1 Chairs, tenable for seven years and renewable, are for
outstanding researchers acknowledged by their peers as world leaders in their
fields. For each Tier 1 Chair, the university receives $200,000 annually for
seven years. Tier 2 chairs, tenable for five years and renewable once, are for
exceptional emerging researchers, acknowledged by their peers as having the
potential to lead in their field. For each Tier 2 chair, the institution receives
$100,000 annually for five years.
A list of research chairs at northern Ontario universities
was compiled from the Canada Research Chair web site as well as university
research pages and is presented at the end of this post. Research chairs in northern Ontario
universities are primarily dominated by CRCs.
There are 24 CRCs currently listed as being held at northern Ontario
universities: 1 at Algoma, 10 at Lakehead, 9 at Laurentian and 4 at
Nipissing. Northern Ontario accounts for
just under 2 percent of Canada’s population and holds just over 1 percent of
CRCs. As well, most of the CRCs held at
northern Ontario universities are generally more junior Tier 2 Chairs.
Along with these 24 CRCs, there appear to be another 14
assorted research chairs listed on university websites as currently being held. These are funded internally (for example a
Lakehead University Research Chair), by the Ontario government (Ontario Research
Chairs) or other funding agencies or resources (for example, Fednor or the
Northern Ontario Heritage Fund). These
additional research chairs bring the total in northern Ontario up to 38.
What is conspicuous by their absence in this list of northern
Ontario research chairs is private donor financed named chairs in which an
endowment is donated to finance a named research chair in perpetuity. This is something that is more common at
much older, more established and more research-intensive universities. All these northern
Ontario chairs ultimately rely on short-term financing, which once expired ends
the chair meaning there is fragility to the current research chair
infrastructure at these universities.
A challenge for northern Ontario’s research future is for its
universities to engage in efforts to attract larger endowments to fund more
permanent research chairs. This is of
course a great challenge for any university in the current fund raising environment. In general, the weaker economy in northern
Ontario poses unique challenges that are reinforced by the absence of corporate
headquarters in the region. There are
two other more specific challenges.
First, it is often easier to raise money for things rather
than human resources. Donors can see the
outcome from a new building or piece of scientific equipment but it is more of
a challenge but not impossible to sell a research chair. Very often, private donors with a passion in
a certain area of study will look for an opportunity to fund their
passion. Finding and building such
relationships is a long-term investment of development office resources.
Second, given current conservative rates of return – circa 4
percent – it would take an endowment of four million dollars to generate
$160,000 in income. The salary, benefits
and research funding such an amount can support at best means a relatively junior
hire. It goes without saying that the fund-raising required to attract a more
senior scholar near the top of their field is much more substantial.
Knowledge intensive economic activity will be the front edge
of economic activity in northern Ontario.
The challenge for northern Ontario universities is to grow their investment
in research activity with research chairs representing key anchor points in
their research infrastructure. Part of
this growth must involve greater efforts to attract private donor funding to
support those research chairs.
RESEARCH CHAIR INVENTORY FOR
NORTHERN ONTARIO UNIVERSITIES
Algoma
University
Canada Research Chairs
Antunes, Pedro
Tier 2, Natural Sciences and Engineering, Plant and Tree
Biology
Lakehead
University
Canada Research Chairs
Chen, Aicheng
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Analytical Chemistry
Fatehi, Pedram
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Chemical
Engineering
Greenwood, David
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Education
Levkoe, Charles
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Geography
Mushquash, Christopher
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Health Psychology
Rakshit, Sudip
Tier 1, Natural Sciences
and Engineering, Chemical Engineering
Rennie, Michael D.
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Evolution and
Ecology
Reznik, Alla
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Physics
Sameshima, Pauline
Tier 2, Social Sciences and Humanities, Education
Tocheri, Matthew W.
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Anthropology
Other Research Chairs
Dr. Peter Hollings, Geology, Lakehead University Research
Chair in Geochemistry and Ore Deposits (2017-2019)
Dr. Sandra Jeppesen, Lakehead University Research Chair in
Transformative Media and Social Movements (2017-2019)
Dr. Kristin Burnett, Department of Indigenous Learning:
Lakehead University Research Chair in Indigenous Health and Well-Being
(2014-2017)
Dr. Doug Morris, Department of Biology,
Research Chair in Northern Studies
Dr. Mitchell S. Albert, Department of Chemistry, Thunder Bay
Regional Research Institute, Chair in Molecular Imaging and Advanced
diagnostics
Dr. Lew Christopher, Director of the Biorefining Research
Institute and Senior Ontario Research Chair
Laurentian
University
Canada Research Chairs
Basiliko, Nathan
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Soil Science
Crozier, Gillian
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Philosophy
Gunn, John
Tier 1, Natural Sciences
and Engineering, Evolution and Ecology
Kraus, Christine
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Astronomy and
Astrophysics
Merritt, Thomas
Tier 2, Natural Sciences and Engineering, Molecular Biology
Schinke, Robert
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Other in SSH
Schulte-Hostedde, Albrecht
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering, Evolution and
Ecology
Walker, Jennifer
Tier 2, Health Health Services Research – General
Ye, Zhibin
Tier 2, Natural Sciences and Engineering, Chemical Engineering
Other Research Chairs
Dr. Doug Boreham
Radiation and Health
Dr. Greg Ross
FedNor Algae and Environment
Dr. Michael Lesher
Mineral Exploration
Dr. Nadia Mykytzuk
NOHFC - Biomining, Bioremediation and Science Communication
Dr. Nancy Young
(No Specification)
Dr. Serge Miville
Franco-Ontarian History
Dr. Sheldon Tobe
HSF/NOSM Chair in Aboriginal and Rural Health
Dr. Tammy Eger
Occupational Health and Safety
Nipissing
University
Canada Research Chairs
Bruner, Mark
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Psychosocial Behavioural Research - General
Greer, Kirsten
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Geography
James, April
Tier 2, Natural
Sciences and Engineering Hydrology
Zarifa, David
Tier 2, Social Sciences
and Humanities, Sociology
Monday 19 December 2016
Maclean’s Charts 2017 and Some Implications for Northern Ontario’s Economy in 2017
Jason Kirby at MacLean’s Magazine has been putting together
year-end chart extravaganzas for the last few years and his 2017 list of charts to watch has 75 contributions.
They are of course designed to help make sense of the Canadian economy
in the year ahead but they also are useful in understanding regional economic
performance.
There are contributions dealing with trends in population
aging, business investment, government debt, employment, housing markets, wage
growth, export performance, trade, service sector growth, electricity prices,
stock markets, environment, and manufacturing. Indeed, my own contribution to this year’s chart collection was
a simple one showing Canada’s manufacturing to GDP ratio and the exchange rate
since 1950. My point? A low dollar
may not help Canadian manufacturing and by extension what remains of the
manufacturing sector in northern Ontario.
As I note in the write-up: “A high Canadian dollar is often blamed
for Canada’s manufacturing malaise and with its recent depreciation there is
hope that a renaissance will be sparked in Canadian manufacturing. The
long-term evidence suggests otherwise. While Canada’s manufacturing output per
capita has grown in the long term, manufacturing’s share of national output has
fallen quite steadily from 27 per cent in 1950 to 11 per cent today. Our dollar
in terms of its exchange rate with the U.S. dollar (our major trading partner)
was relatively stable from 1950 to the late 1970s, and then began depreciating
from the mid 1970s to the early 2000s. It then appreciated again during
the commodity boom of the 21st century and has been depreciating
recently. Fluctuations in our currency’s value (relative to the U.S. dollar)
may have some short-term effects on manufacturing production. The period
from the late 1970s to the early 1990s does seem to have seen some
stabilization of the share of manufacturing in our GDP. However, Canada’s manufacturing
decline is rooted in long-term economic factors such as productivity
growth—which slowed substantially after 2000—and the trend of developed
economies around the world toward service production.”
In the case of northern Ontario, there has been some
movement in our forest sector recently with a pick-up in sawmill and pulp
sector activity. However, despite
a lower dollar, we should not expect a massive resurgence in this sector. The fact remains that the sector was
hit not only by a higher Canadian dollar during the forest sector crisis but
also the effects of environmental priorities, higher electricity prices, weak
business capital investment in an aging capital stock, and new and more
productive competitors around the world.
As some of the other Maclean's charts show, electricity prices in Ontario are still an issue and business investment in Canada is still weak. Given the permanent shutdown of so much manufacturing capacity in Canada, a lower dollar now is
not going to automatically re-ignite production in manufacturing, let along the forest products sector in northern Ontario. The future of the northern Ontario economy, like the rest of Canada, is going to rely on services.
Sunday 18 December 2016
Recognition for Economic Blogging
Some news worth sharing. As you know, I have been involved for a number of years now as a contributor to the economics blog Worthwhile Canadian Initiative along with my colleagues Stephen Gordon, Nick Rowe and Frances Woolley. I have always considered our mix of macro, finance, health, social policy and economic policy posts to be Canada's premier economics blog. However, we also make a mark internationally. Recently, Feedspot has announced that Worthwhile Canadian Initiative is one of its top 100 Economics Blogs! We have also made the list of top 100 Economics Blogs for 2016 done by Intelligent Economist. Moreover, global consulting firm Focus Economics has informed us that recognition is coming our way with their list of top economics blogs coming out in January 2017. Congratulations to my colleagues on WCI and looking forward to another year of great posts in 2017.
Friday 16 December 2016
Northern Ontario Employment Growth Lagging...And With Regional Differences
A new Fraser Institute report on recent economic and employment growth in Ontario noted
that it has been disproportionately concentrated in the Golden Horseshoe and Ottawa regions. Meanwhile, southwestern, eastern and northern Ontario have lagged when it comes to employment growth. Indeed, as the accompanying figure from the report below shows: “Average annual net employment growth has been negative in Eastern and Northern Ontario between 2010 and 2015. Average employment growth in Southwestern Ontario during this time has been positive, but only barely (0.4% annually)”.
What is
surprising is how relatively little attention the report received in northern
Ontario from media outlets and local community economic and business leaders
given the usual preoccupation with the northern Ontario economy. The results of the report are more important
than one might expect because the negative aggregate employment performance of
northern Ontario is being driven largely by northwestern Ontario. The two largest urban economies in northern
Ontario are representative of this differential performance.
Figure 2
presents monthly seasonally adjusted employment for Thunder Bay (with fitted linear
trend) for the period 2001 to 2016 while Figure 3 does the same for Greater
Sudbury (Data source: Statistics Canada). Over the long term, the two
cities have travelled different roads with employment growing in Greater
Sudbury while it has shrunk over time in Thunder Bay. While employment growth
has slowed in Sudbury since 2010 while the decline appears to have flattened out in Thunder Bay, the long-term performance relative to Thunder
Bay still stands out. The long-term effects of the forest sector crisis in Thunder Bay appear to have been a permanent downsizing of the employment base.
Of course, one might want to counter with the argument that unemployment rates in Thunder Bay and indeed the northwest are quite low but this is misleading. The fact is that the labour force has been shrinking along with employment over the last decade in Thunder Bay hence improving the unemployment rate. A shrinking employment base is not generally a cause for celebration even if it comes with falling unemployment rates. More on this in posts to come.
Thursday 15 December 2016
The Northern Economy: More Evidence Based Work Needed
Well, it is probably time to resume the occasional post on aspects of northern Ontario's economy as well as broader economic issues from a northern Ontario perspective. I will do it here on Northern Economist 2.0 to provide continuity with previous posts and material. The advent of the Northern Policy Institute has provided a welcome supply of reports on northern Ontario issues and policy from a broad perspective but there is room I think for material focusing specifically on northern Ontario economic indicators. This particularly struck me with the recent publication by the Fraser Institute of an excellent report on differential economic performance across Ontario. Needless to say, it appears that the economic situation in northern Ontario has not improved substantially in recent years and indeed the recent mining sector downturn appears to have dealt a blow to the region. In the months to come, I will once again start providing the occasional post dealing with northern Ontario's economy using available data resources. Blogging is of course time intensive so I do not plan to resume with the frequency of Northern Economist 1.0 but I will be addressing areas where I think an analytical gap exists. To the future. Cheers. Livio.
Saturday 9 November 2013
Follow My Postings on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
Thank you for your interest in Northern Economist 2.0. I recently finished a sabbatical and have been directing my research activity more into my interests in economic history, health economics and public policy issues which leaves less time for analysis of the northern Ontario economy. I have also been doing some public policy research on public finance issues with the Fraser Institute. A visit to my Google Scholar page will provide you with background on the work I have been doing in areas like health expenditure determinants, wealth inequality and public policy in general. You are also welcome to visit my department web page at Lakehead University where I post materials related to my presentations. If you are interested in continuing to read my blog material on economic policy and analysis with a focus on Canadian public policy issues, please visit my postings on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative. As well, my old Northern Economist postings are still currently available here on the old Shaw Webspace site until March 2017. After that, the main content will still be avilable in an archive site I have set up which I am calling Northern Economist 1.0 (Archive). All the best. Livio.
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