Data from Statistics Canada on Thunder Bay's unemployment rate, employment and labour force suggest that its economy is experiencing a rebound after quite a few years of slow performance. The most recent unemployment rate in Thunder Bay for May 2012 came in at 5.7 percent, which is well below the national and Ontario unemployment rates. Of course, one of the reasons our unemployment rate is so low is that the labour force has not been growing as fast as employment but the last twelve months suggest that employment has actually begun to grow faster than the labour force.
Figure 1 shows unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted) for Canada, Ontario, Thunder Bay and Greater Sudbury for the 2009 to 2012 period on the left and total employment (seasonally adjusted) for Thunder Bay over the same period on the right. As can be seen, the period from June 2011 to January 2012 saw robust increases in employment followed by a decline since. Overall, employment levels in Thunder Bay are the highest that they have been in the last three years.
Figure 1
The second figure shows annualized growth rates (May to May) for 2010, 2011 and 2012. Thunder Bay's labour force actually shrank in both 2010 and 2011 but it grew substantially in 2012 - along with employment. Employment in 2012 grew by 5.3 percent while the labour force grew by 3.8 percent. As a result, the unemployment rate dropped below 7 percent in 2011 and in 2012 has fallen below 6 percent. However, the total level of employment in May 2012 is 61,500 - which is still down from the high of 67,400 reached in March 2003 but up from a low of 57,400 as recently as June 2011.
Thunder Bay's economy appears to have begun to recover from the forest sector collapse but still has ground to go. Moreover, its employment still seems to be subject to somewhat erratic fluctuations. While June 2011 to January 2012 saw a period of sustained increases, employment has declined since then. Thunder Bay is still very much an economy in transition.
Figure 2
Northern Economist 2.0
Showing posts with label thunder bay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label thunder bay. Show all posts
Friday 15 June 2012
Friday 24 February 2012
Thunder Bay's Fiscal Follies
The Thunder Bay City Council budget situation grows more and
more curious. A media report
yesterday contained what can only be termed contradictory information. On the one hand, the story in the
Chronicle-Journal stated that: “The proposed budget includes a 2.67 per-cent
property tax increase on top of a 1.5 percent hike for the enhanced
infrastructure renewal program.”
This means that the combined property tax increase for this budget year
is actually 4.2 percent. Yet, a little
later in the story, Councilor Linda Rydholm is quoted as saying she was willing
to support the budget because: “At ward meetings and other places, it seems
like people are expecting the 2.67 per cent increase, particularly knowing that
1.5 percent is for infrastructure, roads and buildings.” In other words, the tax increase is
2.67 percent but the 1.5 percent is included.
It would appear that we are still sorting out the size of
the actual increase in Thunder Bay’s 2012 municipal taxes. Moreover, it would appear that even
city councilors are confused as to whether the total increase is 2.67 percent
or 4.2 percent. Add to this the
fact that seven million dollars was inadvertently left out of this year’s
municipal budget and now will be funded out of the reserve fund, one has to
wonder what exactly is going on?
Is there some confusion on the part of the media in understanding council's message? Are city councilors unable to grasp the details and complexity of the
budget process? Are city administrators
and councilors engaged in a strategy of sowing confusion to obscure the true size
of the increase? Or is this simply some giant comedy of errors at taxpayer
expense?
If the total municipal tax increase is indeed 4.2 percent,
it means that total payments to the city by municipal ratepayers will rise nearly
5 percent this year once the rise in water rates of 6.7 percent is
included. In 2011, the water
bill for the average household was 714 dollars while the average property tax bill was
2,501 dollars. Using these figures
to compute a weighted average results in an increase of 4.8 percent in total payments
by ratepayers to the city in 2012 (4.8=0.22*6.7+0.78*4.2). Breaking up a 4.8 percent increase into
three separate numbers may fool some of the taxpayers some of the time but it
cannot fool all of them. If City
Council wants to remain at all credible, it will need to come clean and address
this confusion and very quickly.
This credibility is all the more important given the cost overruns for
operating the new waterfront park and the desire to build a new multiplex that
will also require a large public operating subsidy.
Thursday 9 February 2012
Northern Economist on the Census!
Well, the release of the 20111 Census results yesterday spawned alot of media activity for me yesterday ranging from the Huffington Post to Thunder Bay Television News to editorial mention in the Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal. Thunder Bay Television has posted part of the interview they conducted with me on Youtube which you can access here.
Wednesday 8 February 2012
2011 Census Results for Population In: Northern Ontario Declines
Statistics Canada released the first set of 2011 census results today dealing with population and dwelling counts. Canada's population is up 5.9 percent from 2006, Ontario's is up 5.7 percent while within Ontario, the North is down overall by 1.4 percent. As the accompanying table shows, the Northeast stayed stable in terms of its overall population while the Northwest showed a decline of 4.7 percent. As for the major urban centers of the North, Greater Sudbury posted a 1.6 percent increase, North Bay a 1 percent increase, and Timmins a 0.4 percent increase. The Sault and Thunder Bay both saw declines in their populations of -0.4 and -1.1 respectively.
The Northwest during the period 2006 to 2011 worked its way through the aftermath of the forest sector crisis with the region outside of Thunder Bay bearing the brunt of the employment and population adjustment. Employment and GDP in Thunder Bay shrank by about 10 percent during the forest sector crisis and its population has been remarkably resilient given the decline. Employment in the region outside of Thunder Bay shrank by almost 30 percent. Employment numbers over the last year have been showing increases in Thunder Bay and the Northwest and these population results are hopefully a lagging indicator. The Northeast has been buoyed by its mining sector though there is a redistribution of population towards the major urban centers. Evidence from the Northeast suggests that should the Ring of Fire mining development successfully proceed, the Northwest can also expect to see stabilization and even some growth in its population.
What will be interesting is the additional sub-regional breakdowns in population with the Northeast and the Northwest. For example, between 2001 and 2006, while the Northwest declined in population, the Kenora District actually saw increasing population. As well, the aboriginal population increased substantially in the Northwest between 2001 and 2006. Further results and analysis on whether these trends have continued since 2006 to come.
The Northwest during the period 2006 to 2011 worked its way through the aftermath of the forest sector crisis with the region outside of Thunder Bay bearing the brunt of the employment and population adjustment. Employment and GDP in Thunder Bay shrank by about 10 percent during the forest sector crisis and its population has been remarkably resilient given the decline. Employment in the region outside of Thunder Bay shrank by almost 30 percent. Employment numbers over the last year have been showing increases in Thunder Bay and the Northwest and these population results are hopefully a lagging indicator. The Northeast has been buoyed by its mining sector though there is a redistribution of population towards the major urban centers. Evidence from the Northeast suggests that should the Ring of Fire mining development successfully proceed, the Northwest can also expect to see stabilization and even some growth in its population.
What will be interesting is the additional sub-regional breakdowns in population with the Northeast and the Northwest. For example, between 2001 and 2006, while the Northwest declined in population, the Kenora District actually saw increasing population. As well, the aboriginal population increased substantially in the Northwest between 2001 and 2006. Further results and analysis on whether these trends have continued since 2006 to come.
Sunday 5 February 2012
Investment Activity and Trends in Northern Ontario: Part Three – Thunder Bay and Sudbury
In this third installment on investment activity in Northern
Ontario as illustrated by building permit data, I am going to focus on the roles of
Thunder Bay and Sudbury. These are
the two largest urban centres in Northern Ontario with CMA populations of
122,000 and 158,000 respectively accounting for about 38 percent of Northern
Ontario’s population of 745,000.
As the largest urban nodes, one would expect them to be major drivers of
economic activity and new investment and the data suggests that they are indeed
major economic contributors but are not exactly punching much above their
population weight.
Figure 1 shows the total nominal value of building permits (and the linear trends)
issued in Thunder Bay and Greater Sudbury over a 20-year period and reveal that
Thunder Bay has stayed relatively flat over this period whereas Sudbury enjoyed
a pronounced boom from 2003 to 2009 but has since cooled off somewhat. More interesting is Figure 2, which
plots Sudbury’s share of Northeastern Ontario’s permits, Thunder Bay’s share of
the Northwest’s permits and then their combined share of all of Northern
Ontario. On average, over the
period 1989-2011, Greater Sudbury has accounted for about 34 percent of all
building permit values in the Northeast and Thunder Bay for about 60 percent of
the values in the Northwest. Both
of these are in line with their respective population shares with Thunder Bay somewhat more dominant in its region and together they
account for an average of about 41 percent of Northern Ontario’s building
permit activity. This share has
been trending down slightly over the period 1989-2011 generally as a result of
weaker performance by Thunder Bay given that the trend for Sudbury has been pretty
constant.
While Thunder Bay and Sudbury are important economic drivers
for the region, these results suggest that they are not overly dominant and
that new investment activity is dispersed throughout Northern Ontario. The other towns and cities of the North
– particularly Sault Ste. Marie, Timmins and North Bay – are also important
drivers. Thunder Bay and Sudbury’s
share of new investment activity in Northern Ontario is approximately the same
as their combined population share of the region.
Friday 3 February 2012
Employment Picture Improves in Thunder Bay
The latest Labour Force Survey numbers from Statistics Canada suggest the Canadian economy as a whole is treading water as employment stayed virtually unchanged while the unemployment rate edged up slightly. However, the results for Thunder Bay show a decline in the unemployment rate to where it now is at 6.2 percent - well below the national average of 7.6 percent. In addition, the numbers for the last four months show that both employment and the labour force have expanded in Thunder Bay. Between October 2011 and January 2012, employment rose from 60,100 to 63,600 - an increase of 6 percent. Meanwhile, the labour force grew from 64,600 to 67,800 over the same period - an increase of 5 percent. Employment has actually been growing faster than the labour force recently which is good economic news. What is the source of all this growth? Well, the numbers are not broken down locally by sector but the national numbers show increases in annual employment growth (January 2011 to January 2012) in the natural resource and construction sectors as well as transportation and housing. It is likely a similar trend is at work in Thunder Bay given the numerous construction job sites dotting the city, the mining service activities and our traditional transportation role.
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