The June 2017 building permit numbers from Statistics Canada are out today and they show that the total value of building permits rose in six provinces in June, led
by Quebec and Manitoba. Meanwhile, permits were up
in 14 of 36 census metropolitan areas (CMAs), led by Toronto, Montréal
and Winnipeg with Hamilton reporting the largest decline in June (-60.0%).
The year to year results (June 2016 to June 2017) are shown in the accompanying figure for Canada's CMAs. All CMAs grew 24.3 percent. They range from a high of 172 percent for Halifax to a low of -81 percent for Moncton. As for Thunder Bay and Sudbury, they both show a negative performance with -2.7 percent for Thunder Bay and -4 percent for Greater Sudbury.
This building permit report comes in the wake of Conference Board Reports showing that these two cities have sluggish economies.
However, with respect to building permits in Ontario they are not doing as badly as Hamilton, Windsor, Peterborough or St. Catharines. Another intriguing result is the Ottawa area where Ottawa/Gatineau shows annual growth of 13.7 percent but the Gatineau part is at -12.7 percent and the Ottawa part grew at 18.9 percent.
Statistics Canada released its 2016 Families, Households andMarital Status Results for the 2016 Census on August 2nd and the
results show that proportionally fewer households are composed of a 'mom, dad
and kids' family and more people are either living alone, or as part of a
couple without children, or as part of a multi-generational family. However, the
other interesting result was that the proportion of adults aged 20 to 34 living
with parents was 34.7 percent and has been increasing since 2001 when it was
30.6 percent. It is both a northern and southern Ontario phenomenon.
Well, we are about to start a long weekend so why not stock up on some reading material related to the northern Ontario economy. To start off, a couple of big picture items with important implications both economically and politically.
It turns out the world is round after all and the shortest route to the United States from North Korea is a curve and the curve takes North Korean missiles right over Canada on their way to destinations like New York or Denver. Looking at the map on this story carefully and one can see that the way to Chicago comes pretty close to Thunder Bay. One wonders if the North Koreans are aware that Thunder Bay (actually the twin Lakehead cities of Fort William and Port Arthur) once styled itself as the up and coming "Chicago of the North". Hopefully, the North Koreans have updated their intelligence and will not get Thunder Bay confused with Chicago - not that it will really matter much if we head off into global thermonuclear war. Where is President Trump's "Wall" when we really need it? I guess, we should all just move to Australia and hang out "On the Beach" with Nevil Shute.
Here in the north, we might want to use our enhanced political clout to get the Ontario government to take on North Korea. However, another story in the National Post is not too taken with the potential for two more northern Ontario riding.
Personally, I think sluggish as a description of Thunder Bay's recent economic performance is a bit of an understatement. However, there does appear to be a fair amount of recent hotel, condo and apartment construction so obviously all things considered a lot of people want to live in Thunder Bay either permanently or temporarily despite the economy and the bad national publicity. The Economics Department at Lakehead just hired a new colleague so there is another addition to the local population (4 if you include family). Welcome back to Lakehead Karl & family!
It is heavy industry tied to the mining sector. A Timmins-based speciality plant called The Bucket Shop for the creation and manufacture of
custom heavy equipment buckets for front-end loaders, scoop trams,
excavators and even dozer blades for mining and construction industries. If you are in Timmins, put a visit to it on your bucket list.
Well, things are economically uncertain in the Sault so it is time for a new strategic approach to economic development. According to the story: " Under the new organizational flowchart, the EDC will handle business
retention, attraction and expansion; export opportunities,
infrastructure development, and tourism. The Innovation Centre will oversee technology and innovation
development, provide support for tech companies and start-ups, run the
Community Geomatics Centre, and handle special projects like the lottery
and gaming initiatives, energy projects, and agricultural
opportunities. The municipality, itself, has set up a Community Development Fund and
will steer the development of a strategic plan, handle community
promotion, arts and culture development and work on the labour front to
attract newcomers and bring home ex-pats."
As an economist, restructuring your economic development approach is more of a political gesture designed to convey concern for the economy as economic fundamentals for the Sault like much of the north remain the same. Still, I am not running for office and if I were I guess I would accept the need to look proactive.
If you are marketing your local economy, this is not good:
Well, that is all for this edition of Economic News Around the North. By the way, here is a great Pan Northern Link for news in general. Have a great long weekend!
Well, a number of interesting items have come to my attention with respect to stories with an economic impact on northern Ontario. However, it is summer and peak travel season so I think I will keep things short and a bit more eclectic than usual, but with a tourism focus.
To start off, it would appear that tourism efforts in White River, Ontario may be all for naught given the reaction of the Chinese government to Winnie the Pooh. According to a BBC story, Winnie the Pooh is being blocked in China because images of Pooh are being used to represent China's President Xi Jinping in social commentary and criticism.
Winnie-the-Pooh may be the world's most beloved bear but apparently the love stops in Beijing where government censors cannot "bear" the images. White River has of course gone to great lengths to market its link to the character and everyone who has driven the highway has invariably stopped at the roadside statue of the Pooh.
No doubt, White River and its citizens will now join the list of subversive elements being monitored by the Chinese government and the Pooh Hometown Festival held the third week of August will acquire new cachet and international significance. Mark August 18th down in your travel calendar.
In other northern news stories with some relation to tourism and the economics of tourism and travel:
Well, given Thunder Bay's recent spate of bad news, the above ranking by MoneySense qualifies as good news though the story does qualify the ranking by noting that nevertheless, Thunder Bay barely makes the top 100 ranking only 97th overall (out of 400).
Summer is also the season of festivals and events and the economic impact of these festivals is important.
And if you are in Thunder Bay and at Hillcrest Park on Thursday evenings, there is always the MacGillivray Pipe Band which is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year.
And speaking of MacGillivray, what would William MacGillivray (b. 1764, d. 1825; Chief Director of the Northwest Company) who managed a commercial fur trade empire that extended A Mare usque ad Mare and after whom Fort William, the inland headquarters of the Northwest Company was named, think of this?
Northern Ontario’s economy, with its traditional reliance on
transportation and resource sector activities in the end relies on the
international economy as a source of demand for its products.With that in mind, it is helpful to see
what the latest forecasts are for the world economy and the potential impact on
northern Ontario.FocusEconomics – headquartered in
Barcelona – is a major international economic research and forecasting company that provides
data and analysis on international economic indicators and produces economic forecasts and
reports. It covers 127 countries, 12 global regions and 33 commodities.It recently released its July 2017 Consensus Forecast for major economies.
Well, I have returned from a rather lengthy set of travels. My trip
home was via the scenic Highway 17 drive through Sudbury, the Sault and
around the north shore of Superior to Thunder Bay. There is nothing
quite like this drive in terms of the vastness of the land and the
vistas of rocks, trees and highway. I had not done this drive in a
number of years and perhaps because of the extra rain this year the
landscape seemed a lot greener than I remembered it. The video link here shows a bridge crossing along the way (I was in the passenger seat doing the filming for those of you who might be concerned about my safety). Nevertheless, here are some of the economic news items that have caught my interest.
Well, there were a number of not so flattering stories dealing with Thunder Bay in the national media over the last few weeks but the economic news was somewhat more upbeat.
The Thunder Centre has got a new owner and despite Sears Canada's financial woes, the Thunder Bay store at Intercity Mall is to remain open - at least for now. Sudbury and The Sault were not as lucky. North Bay's store is also not closing.
As for the new school construction, it comes at the cost of some closures - rule of thumb in Thunder Bay based on this story is close three old schools to get one new one. While closing schools is one way of generating some new construction activity, in the end, there are only so many schools that can be closed. Eventually, to get new schools we will have to do it the old fashioned way - boost enrollment. Other northern Ontario cities also seem marked by the dynamic of out with the old and in with the new. In the Sault, the original St. Mary's College was demolished to make way for a new elementary school. One wonders when this dynamic will hit the school boards in Toronto. Curious to see when they will knock down stately old Jarvis Collegiate or UTS in order to build a shiny new building.
Also, in Thunder Bay tourism news, the decommissioned icebreaker Alexander Henry has left Kingston Ontario and is set to return to Thunder Bay to serve as a transportation museum on the waterfront.
In Sudbury, there seem to be a lot of projects coming to a head with
respect to community infrastructure. A key debate is where to build the
new sports arena - downtown or outwards.
In other news, North Bay's housing market is still doing well according to this source.
Meanwhile, for those of you that missed this, the June 1st provincial byelection in Sault Ste. Marie for the seat vacated by Liberal David Orazietti was won by a Conservative for the first time since 1981. A sign of things to come? Hard to say. The election is still officially a year away (though one might see a snap election called in the fall if the governing party feels confident) and alot can happen in a year. Stay tuned.
Here are the stories over the last little while that I feel are of economic importance to northern Ontario. Summer is on the way and there is a definite slowdown in defining economic news as everyone starts heading out to camp for the summer. Tourism is going to be a sector of continuing importance to northern Ontario and camp development should be part of tourism development and infrastructure. Making more camp/cottage lots available for development would certainly be one way of adding to tourism in northern Ontario.
Here is another piece of tourism infrastructure along the north shore of Lake Superior.
Of course, tourism development does not always have positive benefits for everyone as this historical example of northern Ontario tourism exploitation illustrates.
Speaking of infrastructure, there is a glitch in the US Soo locks rebuild. See here.
It was mining day in Thunder Bay recently and there was another mining show in Timmins. These events are good showcases for the sector. The Timmins mining exposition was a 3 day event with 400 exhibitors.
In terms of developing the northern Ontario economy, another call for some type of tax incentive program from City Council in Sault Ste. Marie. There was also a harkening back to the Peterson government of the late 1980s with a call more more government office relocation. I suppose it would not be too tongue-in-cheek to suggest that the Ontario government simply sell all of its land in Toronto - at current sky high prices - use the proceeds to pay off its debt and then relocate the entire Ontario legislature and civil service somewhere in northern Ontario. Of course the competition among the big 5 northern Ontario cities would be cutthroat so Wawa might have to be the compromise location. Perhaps they could make the decision as part of a lottery or gaming experience run by OLG.
Of course, if all else fails there is the inevitable fallback to better marketing. North Bay seems to be going in this direction with its municipal government handing a million dollars to its arms-length municipal economic development agency.
In northern Ontario institutional news, there is a commission studying provincial ridings and representation in the far part of northern Ontario. Some think the commission is thinking of splitting the Timmins-James Bay riding in two to provide better representation to indigenous communities. Will be interesting to see what the commission reports back.
It has been a slow start to spring across northern Ontario but temperatures are finally starting to warm up. Environment Canada says warmer weather is on its way. Here are a few of the stories of economic significance for northern Ontario that caught my attention over the last week or so.
Regarding the Ring of Fire, here is an op-ed by Heather Hall and Ken Coates that essentially makes the point that ultimately, the Ring of Fire will not proceed "without substantial, clear and significant indigenous engagement." In the end as any good economic historian knows, institutional arrangements are important.
Given this op-ed, selling yourself as a Ring of fire smelter location may be premature. I am also surprised that in this age of heightened sensibilities and sensitivities one is actually using the term 'smelter' and not something like "Value Added Mineral Processing and Community Economic Enhancement Facility".
Sadly, given the presence of the Premier in northern Ontario, there was no reaction in northern Ontario to this item (by yours truly) which Dominic Giroux on Twitter noted as a "blunt assessment". I think this provides support for a case for a government program to provide northern Ontario media organizations with research support as they are probably stretched for resources in pursuing stories. This is not that far-fetched given the unfortunate downsizing that has occurred over the years in local media that I am aware of.
When it comes to economic development, human capital is also important and of course education is a key component of any human capital strategy. Providing government services in northern Ontario is already a challenge given the low population density and geographic dispersion. Doing so in rural northern Ontario even more so.
Related to the motif of northern resentment and unhappiness, there was this interesting segment on TVO's agenda hosted by Steve Paikin. In the interview with former Ontario cabinet minister David Orazietti, the interesting point was made that despite the constant claims of alienation and under representation of northern Ontario interests at Queen's Park, on a per capita basis the north has more provincial cabinet ministers than Toronto. Of course, the related news item is the by-election in the Sault for David Orazietti's vacated seat.
And there is one final item and this again related to institutions and what can often be their indirect impact on business and the economy. In Thunder Bay we have the situation where the police chief has been placed on administrative suspension as a result of being charged with breach of trust and obstructing justice "stemming from allegations that he disclosed confidential information concerning Thunder Bay mayor Keith Hobbs." I must admit this one is quite puzzling to me and comes on the heels of other ratherodd stories involving the Mayor. Without really knowing what is going on here, one must nevertheless express disappointment at a situation involving relationships between the senior figures of Thunder Bay's municipal government that does not reflect very well in the national media on a community constantly trying to sell itself as a good place to do business. Coming at a time when Thunder Bay is also under scrutiny for its relations with indigenous people, one hopes that this matter is speedily resolved and Thunder Bay's leadership quickly moves on to dealing with better things.
Most of us are aware that Canadian
households have reached record levels of indebtedness over the last few
years.Household debt in Canada is now
over $2 trillion and household debt to disposable income ratios in Canada are
now at 170 percent.Less discussed is
what has happened to savings.While low
interest rates have been a factor in Canadians being able to carry
substantially larger debt burdens, they have also been a factor in reducing the
interest income from saving and as a result have led to a drop in the number of
savers.
The Bank of Canada rate dropped from 6
percent in 2000 to 0.75 percent in 2015.Over the same period, the total number of savers in Canada as reported
by Statistics Canada from data compiled from Income Tax returns (Table 1110036
- Canadian savers, by savers characteristics, annually) dropped from 4,808,930
to 3,356,840 – a decline of 30 percent.Over the same period, the median annual interest income of Canadians
fell from $400 to $230, a drop of 43 percent.
The Ontario
government released the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario on March 4, 2011 in
response to years of slow growth and economic stagnation in northern Ontario. In an effort to improve the economy of northern Ontario, the 25-year plan was to guide provincial
decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of
strengthening the regional economy. The goal was strengthening the economy of
the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
Well it has been a few weeks since I did an economic news round-up. To start off, Happy Mother's Day to all the moms in northern Ontario and beyond! Here is a very brief sampling of some of the northern Ontario related bigger picture economic stories that caught my attention over the last little while.
There have been a few interesting items over the last few weeks. To start off, both Lakehead and Laurentian universities will be looking for new Presidents as Dominc Giroux and Brian Stevenson nearly simultaneously announced that they will be moving on. Both institutions are key components of the regional knowledge economy as well as significant economic engines in their own right and the choices made with respect to the next presidents will be critical to the region.
The actual role of a university president has become more difficult over the years given the increasing complexity of universities and the social and economic environments in which they operate. However, the key roles remain threefold: vision, fundraising and community relations. The day to day management of the university is generally delegated to sub-ordinates - or should be especially at larger places. In the end, a successful university president must be judged on their leadership role in terms of providing a general vision of the university's role and articulately communicating it, raising funds - a difficult task in the limited economic environment of northern Ontario - and diplomatic service among the many communities that the university serves ranging from alumni to business to government. Good luck to the respective search committees!
The release by Statistics Canada of a second series of data from the 2016 Census on age and sex, and type of dwelling shows just how much Canada's population age distribution has changed. In 1851, 45 percent of Canada population was aged 14 years or less while only 2.5% was 65 years and older. In 2016, only 16.6 percent of the population was aged 14 years or less while 16.9 percent was aged grater than 65 years. As noted in the release, for the first time Canada's population of seniors outnumbered its children (5.9 million seniors versus 5.8 million aged 14 years or less). It is truly a new age.
When the results are examined by CMA, it turns out that large urban centers are younger than the national average. Canada had 16.9 percent of their population aged 65 years and over and 16.6 percent aged 14 years or less. In terms of seniors, the largest proportions were in Trois-Rivieres (22.3%), Peterborough (22.2%) and St. Catharines-Niagara (21.8%) while the lowest where in the west: Saskatoon (12.8%), Edmonton (12.3 percent) and Calgary (11%). As for those aged 14 years and below, the largest proportions were again in the west: Lethbridge (19.1%), Saskatoon (18.9%) and Calgary (18.8%). The smallest were in Trois-Rivieres (14.3%), Kelowna (14.2%) and Victoria (13.1%).
The two northern Ontario centers of Thunder Bay and Sudbury were generally on the older side with Sudbury coming out slightly younger. Thunder Bay ranked 8th out of 35 CMAs in the proportion of seniors (19.8%) and 32nd out of 35 in the proportion aged 14 years or less (14.6%). Sudbury was 12th in the proportion of seniors (18.3%) and 25th in the proportion of children (15.5%). Needless to say, an aging population has implications for future economic growth and these figures suggest that northern Ontario - as represented by Thunder Bay and Sudbury - faces a future of continued slower growth.
This is the fifth in a series of posts in
which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario,
which was released on March 4, 2011.The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment
in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The
goal was strengthening the economy of the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data.
My first post was an overview while my second post looked at
employment.My third post looked
at new investment spending as measured by building permits and my fourth post
looked at consumer and business bankruptcies as an indicator of economic
health. In this fifth post, I will be looking at changes in the composition of
employment between 2011 and 2016 as an indicator of diversification.
Measuring diversification can be a complicated issue. Is a diversified economy one more reliant on services rather than primary industries - in which case we are already there as the bulk of employment in northern Ontario is service oriented. Is a diversified economy one in which we are less reliant on resource extraction or on any one sector? Given the growing reliance on public sector employment in northern Ontario one might argue we have become less diversified in recent years. In short, any measure of economic diversity is bound to be imperfect.
It has been a very busy few days when it comes to economic news affecting northern Ontario. Here is a quick summary of stories: Well, the softwood lumber dispute is back. Just as the industry in northern Ontario was beginning to recover from the forest sector crisis, there is going to be a tariff on softwood lumber. The rates apparently range from 3% to 24%. Resolute is facing a 12.82 percent tariff with other producers in northern Ontario apparently getting the blanket tariff of 19.88 percent. Canada vows to fight 'unfair and punitive duty' as Trump slaps tariff on softwood lumber. Financial Post. April 25th, 2017. Ontario is launching its basic income pilot project and the northern Ontario city selected to participate is Thunder Bay (along with Lindsay and Hamilton) where about 1,000 households will be selected to participate. According to the news item reported here: "A single person could receive up to about $17,000 a year, minus half of
any income he or she earns. A couple could receive up to $24,000 per
year. People with disabilities could receive up to $6,000 more per year." Ontario basic income pilot to launch in Hamilton, Lindsay and Thunder Bay. CBC News, April 24, 2017. I would imagine that none of the Thunder Bay recipients basic income will be residents of the new housing development approved by Thunder Bay City council this week. A 49 lot subdivision was approved that really is a testament to urban sprawl and an example of poor long-term financial planning given the costs of servicing the infrastructure. Ultimately a three kilometer sewer line will have to be extended from Parkdale to the new subdivision. That is a long sewer line to put through very low urban density areas. Maplewood Estates expansion approved by Thunder Bay city council. CBC News, Thunder Bay, April 25th, 2017. In other news around the north. New flight training centre could create up to 150 jobs in Sudbury. Northern Ontario Business. April 18th, 2017. Northern Ontario railway still struggling. SudburyStar.com. April 25th, 2017. The release of the latest in a series of Northern Policy Institute reports on boosting immigration. Project aims to attract immigrants to the North. Sault Star, April 20th, 2017. Decline in available workers a growing concern. Timminpress.com. April 18th, 2017. Also in the Sault: Ontario Supporting Craft Brewery Expansion in Sault Ste. Marie. Ontario.ca, April 21st, 2017. City pleads the need for Essar's tax money. Sault Star. April 19th, 2017. Some controversy still in North Bay regarding a new casino project. Casino risky for economy. Nugget.ca., April 20th, 2017. Is help on the way for northern Ontario from the federal government? Apparently: "The federal government is working to attract jobs and
qualified people to Northern Ontario in an attempt to turn around the
loss of population – particularly young people – according to the
federal minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development." "All-hands on deck" needed to reverse trend-minister. Nugget.ca. April 20th, 2017. It was not exactly specified if the ship was heading into stormy waters or was sinking and needed to be abandoned. And remember, Thursday is budget day in Ontario. For my take on what to expect? See this. Have a great week.
This is the fourth in a series of posts in
which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario,
which was released on March 4, 2011.The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment
in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The
goal was strengthening the economy of the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data.My first post was an overview while my second post looked at
employment and my third post looked at new investment spending as measured by
building permits. In this post, I will be looking at consumer and business
bankruptcies or insolvencies as an indicator of economic health.All other things, during times of economic distress, one
would expect to see more consumer and business bankruptcies while during better
economic times, the numbers should be expected to decline.
Ontario’s Health Quality Council has just released a new report on Health Equity in northern Ontario that shows that Ontario’s northern
regions lag behind provincial averages in quality of health and health
care.The geographic focus of the
report is on the area that “extends north of Lake Huron to Hudson Bay and James Bay,
and from the Quebec border in the east to the Manitoba border in the west,
which represent nearly 80% of Ontario’s landmass.”If you do not want to read the report, there is a pretty
good overview in the Globe and Mail.
While northern Ontario has seen health gains over time, it
remains that the gap in health indicators between the north and the south is
growing and it may be worse than the report suggests because the report’s data
is drawn from Statistics Canada’s Community Health Survey, which does not cover
Indigenous people living on reserves.As it stands, the relative gap in mortality rates has grown to 30
percent in 2012 from a 12-17 percent range in 1992.In 2012, the age standardized mortality rate per 1,000
people was 5.7 in the northwest, 5.7 in the northeast and 4.4 in Ontario.
People in the North West LHIN region have a life expectancy
of 78.6 years, compared to 81.5 years in Ontario. People in the North East LHIN
region also have a markedly lower life expectancy than Ontario overall, of 79.0
years, or 2.5 years shorter than the Ontario average. The North West LHIN
region has nearly double Ontario’s number of potential years of life lost due to
avoidable deaths, at 6,023 years lost per 100,000 people over a two-year
period, compared to 3,243 years per 100,000 people in Ontario. The North East
LHIN region also has considerably higher potential years of life lost due to
avoidable deaths than Ontario, at 4,763 years per 100,000 people. People in
northern Ontario are more likely to die prematurely due to suicide, circulatory
and respiratory disease.
The reasons for these differences are complex.The north is a sparsely populated
region and the vast differences make it difficult to deliver the same level of
care one might get in Toronto to smaller isolated communities.There are also lifestyle factors such
as higher smoking, drinking and obesity rates in the north.For example, the self-reported smoking
rate was 26.0% in the North East LHIN region and 22.9% in the North West LHIN
region, compared to 17.3% in Ontario.
However, access is also still an an issue.According to the report: “People in the north are less likely than
Ontarians as a whole to report having a family doctor, nurse practitioner or
other regular health care provider – 89.2% of people in the North East LHIN
region and 83.8% in the North West LHIN region, compared to 93.8% of people in
Ontario.”The Globe and Mail
story quotes NDP health critic Frances Gélinas as saying that part of the blame
for health-quality gaps between the north and south lies with the Liberal
government’s move to concentrate health services and surgeries in “centres of
excellence” in big cities in the south.
To that, let me add the following anecdotal
observation.Its not just
centralization in the south that may be affecting access to health care in
northern Ontario but also concentration of health services and facilities
within the north’s few major urban centers themselves.Take the case of Thunder Bay since the
new centralized hospital and new medical school were put into place over a decade ago, there has been a
steady migration of health services and facilities to the area around the new hospital
on the north side of the city.Indeed,
even the Fort William Clinic is now technically in what used to be the old City
of Port Arthur.Twenty years ago,
hospitals, diagnostic facilities and clinics appeared to be much more
dispersed across the city’s two north-south population clusters.
I would like to see a study of if there has been any impact
on access to medical services and access particularly for those on the south
side of the city to physician visits and diagnostic tests.Especially, how have seniors with
limited mobility and lower income people on the south side continued to access physician
appointments and tests.Do they
have a higher rate of cancellation?Would the south side benefit from having an Urgent Care Access Center
like the types that have been springing up in southern Ontario cities? Perhaps
there has been no change but I would like to see some evidence based results
because my gut feeling is that it is much harder to access care even in the
north’s larger urban centers and the result is fewer people going to see
doctors and getting tests. Moreover, those most likely to not make it to the doctor may be among more vulnerable populations. However, gut feelings are
not enough to make policy. We need evidence.
Well, we are heading into the Easter weekend. Spring is a time of rebirth and who knows, after two decades of slow growth, perhaps the north's economy will finally resurrect itself in the third. On the other hand, Good Friday this year coincides with the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic. Here are some of the stories that I felt were of economic significance for northern Ontario over the last week or so.
Well the price of gas has shot up again, just in time for a long weekend but it is a phenomenon that hit the entire province. If you want some insight on Canadian gasoline prices in general, there is an old post I did on gas prices on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative that also attracted quite a few comments that provided some interesting points. The long and short, in my opinion, prices are higher because the companies can get away with charging more. Price differentials across regions have converged over time and this may signify greater market power on the part of gas companies.
There seems to be some support for relocating the former icebreaker Alexander Henry from Kingston to Thunder Bay's waterfront. In principle, this will be an excellent addition to the waterfront as it can serve as the core exhibit for a transportation museum. This might mesh in nicely with the plans for a grain museum which is being worked on by Nancy Perozzo's group. As well, there are plans to relocate the Thunder Bay Art Gallery to the waterfront also. When one looks at the restaurant development in the Waterfront area combined with the location of Magnus Theatre and the long-term plans to place an Events Centre in the area, one can finally see a substantial entertainment district coming into shape. The one caveat - customers and money. I know, presenting caveats and pros and cons does not go over well with local movers and shakers who prefer expressions of cheerful mindless optimism when it comes to economic development in the north but Thunder Bay's tax base is under stress and the city's population base and market size are limited. Can Thunder Bay become a tourism destination with its central Canadian waterfront marked as "The Mid-Coast?" Who really knows?
Getting a taxi in Thunder Bay is a ordeal. If you ever needed a taxi in the middle of a weekday afternoon on short notice, forget it as they are all engaged in "school runs". This is another example of how dependent even the private sector in northern Ontario is on public sector spending. I won't even get into trying to get a taxi at the airport or late on a weekend after an evening out or the price. Supply constraints have been very profitable for Thunder Bay taxi companies and by taking five years to re-write the taxi bylaws, Thunder Bay City Council has been aiding and abetting a cozy oligopoly.
Sudbury appears to be moving forward at a rapid clip with a site selection team in place. However, four of the five members of the selection team appear to be directly related to Sudbury's municipal government with a consultant from PWC as the fifth. It would have been useful from an optics point of view to have a more arm's length group of experts. Apparently the criteria for site selection includes cost, economic impact and parking. In the end, it is all about weighting the criteria and if parking carries the biggest weight, then one should expect the greenfield site outside of the downtown as the final destination.
The only surprise here is that the City of North Bay was actually
considering giving the historically significant house to a group that
was going to move it to a "pioneer village" project 70 miles south of
North Bay. Why stop there, maybe they should consider moving it to
Thunder Bay's waterfront - a nice plot of land between the yet to be
completed hotel and the new condos?
And in the relentless and ongoing efforts to attract new business activity via marketing techniques....
There were a number of interesting comments made. I was particularly intrigued by the Red Tape Challenge - an Ontario government consultation program for mining asking for input on what could be done to make the mining industry work better with government. Dealing with red tape by engaging in yet more consultation seems like a typically Ontario way to address questions of efficiency and regulatory barriers. However, with respect to gold as a driver, according to the president of the Ontario Mining Association:
“What has changed in Ontario in the last 10 years is that
gold is now a larger contributor than nickel and copper. That’s new and it is a
combination of the price of the commodities and the number of new discoveries
of gold and the new investments around gold,” said Hodgson.
This is the third in a series of posts in
which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario,
which was released on March 4, 2011.The
25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern
Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The goal was strengthening
the economy of the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data.My first post was an overview of the series while my second post looked at employment.
In this third post, I will be looking at new investment spending as measured by
building permits.
Well it has been a busy end of term not just on campus but across northern Ontario. Here are the items that caught my interest over this last week in terms of general economic significance for the region. The first two stories deal with the MPAC assessments this week.
This is a municipal public finance story that has been many years in the making. Essentially, as a result of appeals and a ruling by MPAC, the City of Thunder Bay will have to refund $2 million to several retailers and grain elevator companies. While this refund has been planned for, it does mean a reduction in revenues from these properties in the future. This is part of a long-term trend away from business/industrial properties towards residential ratepayers and over the course of 25 years in Ontario has meant a shift in the share of property taxes away from the business/industrial sector and onto residential ratepayers. While one might argue that in the past, the business/industrial sector was bearing too large a share, the situation has certainly gone the other way. Of course, the real question is what should the optimal division be between the share of property taxes paid by residential ratepayers and business/industrial one. In Thunder Bay, the situation has been aggravated by the industrial decline of the last 25 years which has seen several pulp and sawmills as well as grain elevators shut down, For my take on property taxation in Thunder Bay, see my January 24th 2017 post. While there is certainly an economic case to be made about the division between residential and business property taxation, in the end the balance will be a political decision.
The Niagara Region will be hosting the 2021 games beating out bids from Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa and Sudbury. The Games are an opportunity to showcase your community and acquire some new infrastructure but at the same time they do come with some expenses. Getting them can be a mixed blessing but they are fun. I remember participating in the opening ceremonies of the 1981 games that were held in Thunder Bay. I was much more agile as a dancer then.
A lot is being made about the $25 million boost to FedNor as some type of trans-formative change to the agency. A similar spin in a story in North Bay.
The fact remains that FedNor's budget a decade ago was $76 million and last year it was $31 million and the $25 million is being spread out over 5 years. I guess I really would need to be sold on what FedNor actually is other than a fund to sprinkle some politically motivated funding on assorted projects to give some semblance to the idea that the federal government cares about northern Ontario's economic development. The minor increase in funding without some kind of vision of what FedNor is transforming to suggests treading water in a palliative care setting rather than trans-formative change.
In other news of concern to long-term regional infrastructure and the north's transportation role:
This last item presents some numbers for the provinces but since all of the mining in Ontario is a northern Ontario economic activity, it provides an interesting snapshot. Have a great week!
