This is the fourth in a series of posts in
which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario,
which was released on March 4, 2011.The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment
in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The
goal was strengthening the economy of the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data.My first post was an overview while my second post looked at
employment and my third post looked at new investment spending as measured by
building permits. In this post, I will be looking at consumer and business
bankruptcies or insolvencies as an indicator of economic health.All other things, during times of economic distress, one
would expect to see more consumer and business bankruptcies while during better
economic times, the numbers should be expected to decline.
Ontario’s Health Quality Council has just released a new report on Health Equity in northern Ontario that shows that Ontario’s northern
regions lag behind provincial averages in quality of health and health
care.The geographic focus of the
report is on the area that “extends north of Lake Huron to Hudson Bay and James Bay,
and from the Quebec border in the east to the Manitoba border in the west,
which represent nearly 80% of Ontario’s landmass.”If you do not want to read the report, there is a pretty
good overview in the Globe and Mail.
While northern Ontario has seen health gains over time, it
remains that the gap in health indicators between the north and the south is
growing and it may be worse than the report suggests because the report’s data
is drawn from Statistics Canada’s Community Health Survey, which does not cover
Indigenous people living on reserves.As it stands, the relative gap in mortality rates has grown to 30
percent in 2012 from a 12-17 percent range in 1992.In 2012, the age standardized mortality rate per 1,000
people was 5.7 in the northwest, 5.7 in the northeast and 4.4 in Ontario.
People in the North West LHIN region have a life expectancy
of 78.6 years, compared to 81.5 years in Ontario. People in the North East LHIN
region also have a markedly lower life expectancy than Ontario overall, of 79.0
years, or 2.5 years shorter than the Ontario average. The North West LHIN
region has nearly double Ontario’s number of potential years of life lost due to
avoidable deaths, at 6,023 years lost per 100,000 people over a two-year
period, compared to 3,243 years per 100,000 people in Ontario. The North East
LHIN region also has considerably higher potential years of life lost due to
avoidable deaths than Ontario, at 4,763 years per 100,000 people. People in
northern Ontario are more likely to die prematurely due to suicide, circulatory
and respiratory disease.
The reasons for these differences are complex.The north is a sparsely populated
region and the vast differences make it difficult to deliver the same level of
care one might get in Toronto to smaller isolated communities.There are also lifestyle factors such
as higher smoking, drinking and obesity rates in the north.For example, the self-reported smoking
rate was 26.0% in the North East LHIN region and 22.9% in the North West LHIN
region, compared to 17.3% in Ontario.
However, access is also still an an issue.According to the report: “People in the north are less likely than
Ontarians as a whole to report having a family doctor, nurse practitioner or
other regular health care provider – 89.2% of people in the North East LHIN
region and 83.8% in the North West LHIN region, compared to 93.8% of people in
Ontario.”The Globe and Mail
story quotes NDP health critic Frances Gélinas as saying that part of the blame
for health-quality gaps between the north and south lies with the Liberal
government’s move to concentrate health services and surgeries in “centres of
excellence” in big cities in the south.
To that, let me add the following anecdotal
observation.Its not just
centralization in the south that may be affecting access to health care in
northern Ontario but also concentration of health services and facilities
within the north’s few major urban centers themselves.Take the case of Thunder Bay since the
new centralized hospital and new medical school were put into place over a decade ago, there has been a
steady migration of health services and facilities to the area around the new hospital
on the north side of the city.Indeed,
even the Fort William Clinic is now technically in what used to be the old City
of Port Arthur.Twenty years ago,
hospitals, diagnostic facilities and clinics appeared to be much more
dispersed across the city’s two north-south population clusters.
I would like to see a study of if there has been any impact
on access to medical services and access particularly for those on the south
side of the city to physician visits and diagnostic tests.Especially, how have seniors with
limited mobility and lower income people on the south side continued to access physician
appointments and tests.Do they
have a higher rate of cancellation?Would the south side benefit from having an Urgent Care Access Center
like the types that have been springing up in southern Ontario cities? Perhaps
there has been no change but I would like to see some evidence based results
because my gut feeling is that it is much harder to access care even in the
north’s larger urban centers and the result is fewer people going to see
doctors and getting tests. Moreover, those most likely to not make it to the doctor may be among more vulnerable populations. However, gut feelings are
not enough to make policy. We need evidence.
Well, we are heading into the Easter weekend. Spring is a time of rebirth and who knows, after two decades of slow growth, perhaps the north's economy will finally resurrect itself in the third. On the other hand, Good Friday this year coincides with the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic. Here are some of the stories that I felt were of economic significance for northern Ontario over the last week or so.
Well the price of gas has shot up again, just in time for a long weekend but it is a phenomenon that hit the entire province. If you want some insight on Canadian gasoline prices in general, there is an old post I did on gas prices on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative that also attracted quite a few comments that provided some interesting points. The long and short, in my opinion, prices are higher because the companies can get away with charging more. Price differentials across regions have converged over time and this may signify greater market power on the part of gas companies.
There seems to be some support for relocating the former icebreaker Alexander Henry from Kingston to Thunder Bay's waterfront. In principle, this will be an excellent addition to the waterfront as it can serve as the core exhibit for a transportation museum. This might mesh in nicely with the plans for a grain museum which is being worked on by Nancy Perozzo's group. As well, there are plans to relocate the Thunder Bay Art Gallery to the waterfront also. When one looks at the restaurant development in the Waterfront area combined with the location of Magnus Theatre and the long-term plans to place an Events Centre in the area, one can finally see a substantial entertainment district coming into shape. The one caveat - customers and money. I know, presenting caveats and pros and cons does not go over well with local movers and shakers who prefer expressions of cheerful mindless optimism when it comes to economic development in the north but Thunder Bay's tax base is under stress and the city's population base and market size are limited. Can Thunder Bay become a tourism destination with its central Canadian waterfront marked as "The Mid-Coast?" Who really knows?
Getting a taxi in Thunder Bay is a ordeal. If you ever needed a taxi in the middle of a weekday afternoon on short notice, forget it as they are all engaged in "school runs". This is another example of how dependent even the private sector in northern Ontario is on public sector spending. I won't even get into trying to get a taxi at the airport or late on a weekend after an evening out or the price. Supply constraints have been very profitable for Thunder Bay taxi companies and by taking five years to re-write the taxi bylaws, Thunder Bay City Council has been aiding and abetting a cozy oligopoly.
Sudbury appears to be moving forward at a rapid clip with a site selection team in place. However, four of the five members of the selection team appear to be directly related to Sudbury's municipal government with a consultant from PWC as the fifth. It would have been useful from an optics point of view to have a more arm's length group of experts. Apparently the criteria for site selection includes cost, economic impact and parking. In the end, it is all about weighting the criteria and if parking carries the biggest weight, then one should expect the greenfield site outside of the downtown as the final destination.
The only surprise here is that the City of North Bay was actually
considering giving the historically significant house to a group that
was going to move it to a "pioneer village" project 70 miles south of
North Bay. Why stop there, maybe they should consider moving it to
Thunder Bay's waterfront - a nice plot of land between the yet to be
completed hotel and the new condos?
And in the relentless and ongoing efforts to attract new business activity via marketing techniques....
There were a number of interesting comments made. I was particularly intrigued by the Red Tape Challenge - an Ontario government consultation program for mining asking for input on what could be done to make the mining industry work better with government. Dealing with red tape by engaging in yet more consultation seems like a typically Ontario way to address questions of efficiency and regulatory barriers. However, with respect to gold as a driver, according to the president of the Ontario Mining Association:
“What has changed in Ontario in the last 10 years is that
gold is now a larger contributor than nickel and copper. That’s new and it is a
combination of the price of the commodities and the number of new discoveries
of gold and the new investments around gold,” said Hodgson.
This is the third in a series of posts in
which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario,
which was released on March 4, 2011.The
25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern
Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The goal was strengthening
the economy of the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data.My first post was an overview of the series while my second post looked at employment.
In this third post, I will be looking at new investment spending as measured by
building permits.
Well it has been a busy end of term not just on campus but across northern Ontario. Here are the items that caught my interest over this last week in terms of general economic significance for the region. The first two stories deal with the MPAC assessments this week.
This is a municipal public finance story that has been many years in the making. Essentially, as a result of appeals and a ruling by MPAC, the City of Thunder Bay will have to refund $2 million to several retailers and grain elevator companies. While this refund has been planned for, it does mean a reduction in revenues from these properties in the future. This is part of a long-term trend away from business/industrial properties towards residential ratepayers and over the course of 25 years in Ontario has meant a shift in the share of property taxes away from the business/industrial sector and onto residential ratepayers. While one might argue that in the past, the business/industrial sector was bearing too large a share, the situation has certainly gone the other way. Of course, the real question is what should the optimal division be between the share of property taxes paid by residential ratepayers and business/industrial one. In Thunder Bay, the situation has been aggravated by the industrial decline of the last 25 years which has seen several pulp and sawmills as well as grain elevators shut down, For my take on property taxation in Thunder Bay, see my January 24th 2017 post. While there is certainly an economic case to be made about the division between residential and business property taxation, in the end the balance will be a political decision.
The Niagara Region will be hosting the 2021 games beating out bids from Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa and Sudbury. The Games are an opportunity to showcase your community and acquire some new infrastructure but at the same time they do come with some expenses. Getting them can be a mixed blessing but they are fun. I remember participating in the opening ceremonies of the 1981 games that were held in Thunder Bay. I was much more agile as a dancer then.
A lot is being made about the $25 million boost to FedNor as some type of trans-formative change to the agency. A similar spin in a story in North Bay.
The fact remains that FedNor's budget a decade ago was $76 million and last year it was $31 million and the $25 million is being spread out over 5 years. I guess I really would need to be sold on what FedNor actually is other than a fund to sprinkle some politically motivated funding on assorted projects to give some semblance to the idea that the federal government cares about northern Ontario's economic development. The minor increase in funding without some kind of vision of what FedNor is transforming to suggests treading water in a palliative care setting rather than trans-formative change.
In other news of concern to long-term regional infrastructure and the north's transportation role:
This last item presents some numbers for the provinces but since all of the mining in Ontario is a northern Ontario economic activity, it provides an interesting snapshot. Have a great week!
Here are some of the recent items I found to be of economic significance to northern Ontario. If you are interested in the regional impact of the Federal budget this week from my perspective, see my previous post. There was also this somewhat more upbeat story on CBC:
As well, the 25 million dollar boost to Fednor seems to have gotten some attention. I guess in northern Ontario, 25 million dollars is considered alot of money and the source of much optimism.
The arrival of the M.V. Manitoulin was a record breaking early arrival for the first ship and leads to the hope this is the start of another great shipping season for the Port of Thunder Bay. The Port of Thunder Bay has been on an upward trend the last few years.
As well, it turns out Sunrise Records will be adding to Thunder Bay retail filling the hole left by the closure of HMV. See:
And the upbeat news continues all over the north. In the Sault, despite concerns raised by the local Chamber of commerce at a public forum, the city's Mayor has assured everyone that municipal costs are under control.
After all, the city council in the Sault has shrunk from 12 to 10 saving $60,000 annually! However, to put $60,000 in perspective, keep in mind the total municipal levy for 2017 in the Sault is projected at 108.9 million dollars.
In terms of infrastructure, Timmins is opening a new hospice center and the optimism was contagious also spilling over to a generally positive view of certain elements of the federal budget by the Timmins Chamber of Commerce. Perhaps some of that new Fednor funding is headed towards highway construction in the Timmins area. See:
Hopefully, concrete might do a better job withstanding the potholes that have been plaguing me as I drive around Thunder Bay. It is difficult to remain upbeat when one's innards are constantly jarred by potholes.
Meanwhile, things are looking up in North Bay. While North Bay's population, like much of that in northern Ontario is aging at a fast rate, it remains that there might be a silver (no pun intended) lining....
The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario was released on March 4, 2011 and nearly six years on
it is probably time to see what impact it has had on the economy of northern
Ontario.The 25-year plan was to
guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the
aim of strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to
strengthen the economy of the North by:
Diversifying the region's traditional
resource-based industries
Stimulating new investment and
entrepreneurship
Nurturing new and emerging sectors with
high growth potential.
Of course, evaluating the success of the Growth Plan for
Northern Ontario can be a complicated endeavor as it is very important to
decide what to measure.The Plan
itself did have a section on monitoring and performance measures – Section 8.4 that
read as follows:
8.4 Monitoring and Performance Measures
8.4.1 The Minister of Infrastructure
and the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry will jointly
monitor overall implementation of this Plan and report on what progress
provincial ministries and municipalities have made to implement the policies in
this Plan.
8.4.2 The Minister of Infrastructure
and the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry will work with
external partners to develop a set of performance indicators to assist in Plan
monitoring and reporting as set out in Policy 8.4.1.
8.4.3 Success in achieving this
Plan's outcomes will, in part, be measured by assessing progress in:
attracting
investment and business growth in Northern Ontario
diversifying
the North's economic base
supporting
education and skills development of the North's workforce
increasing
the involvement of Aboriginal peoples in the northern economy
improving
the connectivity of the northern population though information
technologies.
It is
further acknowledged that long-term progress in these areas requires sustained,
co-ordinated efforts by the Province and all its external partners.
8.4.4 The Province is further
committed to the development of performance measures for ministry-specific
initiatives that support implementation of the policies in this Plan.
Now the indicators suggested by this section can be
considered important indicators of success but actually measuring them is a
much more difficult endeavor and in the end one will have to measure some of
them indirectly.While it might be
possible to measure government investments in aboriginal education and skills
development, how does one measure diversifying the North’s economic base or
increasing the involvement of Aboriginal people’s in the northern economy?
So in the absence to my knowledge of any official effort to yet
present comprehensive evidence as to what the overall progress and evaluation of
the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario has been to date, I have decided to devote
several blog posts in the coming weeks to assessing the impact of the plan on
economic performance and activity in northern Ontario. And of course, as an economist there are some pretty standard measures or indicators of what I would term to be economic growth. After all, if something is called a "Growth Plan" then one needs to see growth over the time period spanned by the plan. Stay tuned!
Well, another week has come and gone and there are many economic stories bubbling around northern Ontario and even farther afield with implications for northern Ontario. For example, this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal reported on upcoming talks between the forest sector and the federal government on preparing for the upcoming Canada-US softwood lumber negotiations. However, little information was provided in the story as to what strategy options are being explored as Canada moves into negotiations with the Trump administration on this file.
The policies of the Trump administration will soon also be front and center with respect to environmental funding dealing with the Great Lakes. The budget proposed in the United States has put forth rather large cuts to program spending and one area that will have a direct impact on northern Ontario is what seems to be the complete elimination of $300 million dollars annually for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative with plans shifting the responsibility onto state and local governments. See:
In brighter news, while northern Ontario reports the lowest optimism when it comes to construction activity in the Ontario Construction Secretariat 2017 Construction confidence Indicator, it is nevertheless up from 2016 and part of that optimism is due to a number of post-secondary construction projects in Sudbury and North Bay at Laurentian University and Canadore College. However, the Trump effect is again rearing its head here as: "Despite the boost in overall confidence, nearly half of the 500 contractors surveyed report they expect the Donald Trump presidency to have a negative or harmful effect on Ontario’s economy and construction industry. This sentiment is most acute in Windsor-Sarnia where 59 per cent of respondents believe Trump’s government will harm Ontario’s economy." See: Post-secondary projects generate optimism in North Bay, Sudbury-survey. North Bay Nugget, March 16th, 2017. In business activity and expansion news: Explor Resources starts drilling program on Timmins-area property. Northern Ontario Business. March 16th, 2017.
When it comes to civic issues and municipal government, a couple of items. The urban renewal legacy of the 1970s haunts us still. In Thunder Bay, they are revisiting the future of Victoriaville Mall. In the 1970s, both the north and south downtowns in Thunder Bay (corresponding to the old cities of Port Arthur and Fort William) received urban renewal makeovers that in the long run were less than successful. The Keskus Mall in downtown Port Arthur was eventually demolished to make way for the Casino but Victoriaville which was built right on the main downtown intersection and permanently affected traffic patterns lingers on and apparently costs the City of Thunder Bay $500,000 annually. Victoriaville hit tough sledding right off the bat in the recession of the early 1980s as its anchor store -the Chapples family store - went under. Keskus did not lose its major retail anchor until the late1990s when Eaton's went under.
And in Sudbury, the big municipal fiscal issue is the contentious reorganization of its fire and paramedic services with a big meeting slated for March 21st. For my take on the issue and links to some of the news stories, see my earlier blog post here.
It is also Federal budget week with the budget coming down March 22nd and we will have to see what emerges specifically geared towards northern Ontario. For my contribution to federal budget debate this week, see here. Have a great week.
Here
are some of the items that caught my interest this week in terms of some
economic significance for northern Ontario as well as more general interest.
A fair number of stories having to do with mining and the growing feeling that
there is finally a resurgence in the mining sector. A story in this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle Journal also mentioned that the Hemlo mine may have more life in it. However, it is
important to separate this from the hype regarding the Ring of Fire which faces
a number of other obstacles (see my previous post). As The Economist story
referenced below noted: "The
potential of “green” metals and minerals, which along with copper and cobalt
include nickel, lithium and graphite, is adding to renewed excitement about
investing in mining firms as they emerge from the wreckage of a $1trn splurge
of over-investment during the China-led commodities supercycle, which began in
the early 2000s. The most bullish argue that clean energy could be an even
bigger source of demand than China has been in the past 15 years or so."
In
other news, like Thunder Bay, Sudbury is also going through debate and
discussion on a new arena and like iterations of the debate in Thunder Bay,
location is an issue. One view sees a new arena in the downtown area on
the site of the current arena whereas another view wants it further afield.
Interesting point is the proposed price tag which comes in at $80 million
dollars (plus another $20 million for land) which is below what estimates ($114 million) for a new facility in
Thunder Bay come in at. Sudbury is apparently also getting a new casino.
It
also turns out there is a bit of contention over OPG jobs which have been moved
out of North Bay and partly to Timmins and Cornwall, Ontario. Jobs are a
scarce commodity in the north and the broader public sector has become a pillar
of most communities. When it comes to employment, I suppose the public
sector giveth and the public sector taketh away.
While North Bay is unhappy with the OPG development, it can take
consolation in new dealings with Russia. I would imagine this will provide opportunities for travel.
Thunder
Bay is apparently not getting one yet. However, residents of
Thunder Bay can take some solace in its new transit development courtesy of The
Beaverton and more seriously the proposed infrastructure spending on its recreational facilities at local schools.
Regarding the proposed infrastructure spending on track and field facilities, a
student is quoted as saying: "It's
an opportunity to play on a field like to play on a field like the people down
in southern Ontario get to play (on)." I suppose we can all regard
this development as helping to level the playing field with respect to southern
Ontario at least with respect to sports, if not the use of the English
language. However, it may be a long-term investment in health via exercise as
other stories suggest the North may still not be a very healthy place relative to
southern Ontario. See for example:Grim Data Emerging. The Chronicle Journal. March
12th, 2017.This story did not
provide a regional breakdown on snowmobile deaths but the gender breakdown
shows males are more likely to die in snowmobile accidents. On a per
capita basis, there are probably more deaths in the north. In the week of
February 22nd, there were five fatalities - one in Oro-Medonte, one in
Thorton, two in Nipigon and one in Lindsay, Ontario.
There was an exchange in Ontario’s Legislature yesterday
between MPP Norm Miller and Minister of Northern Development & Mines Bill
Mauro regarding whether or not the government would “finally take a leadership role that will make the Ring of Fire a
reality in Ontario?”The
minister responded that mineral exploration activity in Ontario was climbing
and progress was being made and more specifically asserted that: “there are three other mines under
construction in the province. But they want to spend their time focusing on
one. There’s one not too far from my home community of Thunder Bay called the
New Gold project. Speaker, right now it’s under construction and 600 people are
working on a construction site. When that mine is open for the next 10, 20 or
30 years of its life, there are going to be 450 people working in that mine.”
My belief is that any full-blown development of the Ring of
Fire is many years away given the ongoing negotiations with First
Nations, the immense cost of transportation infrastructure to access the Ring
of Fire as well as the state of resource and commodity markets.However, it is worth examining whether
there has been some progress in northern Ontario’s resource sector particularly
when it comes to employment generation.Figures 1 and 2 present employment in northern Ontario’s resource
extraction sector as measured by Statistics Canada seriesv91415810
(Northeast) and v91415829 (Northwest) on employment in Forestry, Fishing,
Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas presented monthly from 3rd month 2001
to 1st month 2017.
The results in Figure 1 show that
while there is some substantial fluctuation in resource extraction over time
with some large upswings, when a linear trend is fitted to the data the
long-term performance is quite flat.Indeed, average monthly employment was 21,500 in 2001 and 21,867 in 2016
– actually a 1.7 percent increase.
Figure 2 is more interesting because it separates the employment data up
into northeast and northwest Ontario.While the northeast has trended up over time, the northwest has trended
down.Average monthly resource
extraction employment in the northeast was 12,470 in 2001 and 17,892 in 2016 –
an increase of average monthly employment over time of about 44 percent.Meanwhile, the northwest has seen
average monthly employment in resource extraction fall from 9,030 in 2001 to 3,975
in 2016 – a decline of 56 percent.
This is a remarkable difference in
performance and likely represents the long-term impact of the forest sector
crisis on the northwest – which was much more forestry intensive than the
northeast – as well as the relative success of mining in the northeast relative
to the northwest.While the
northwest is seeing mining activity, it has not yet been on a sufficiently large
enough scale to be the employment generator it is touted to be.I suppose we are still waiting for the
Ring of Fire to be ignited.
Well, this has been a busy week when it comes to news of economic significance for northern Ontario. Here are some of the items that caught my interest with some occasional commentary. Have a nice weekend!
According to this report out of the Fraser Institute, Ontario has dropped to 18th place globally as an attractive place to do business in a mining company survey and ranking.
As is often the case, coordination and transactions costs are important elements in government and economic policy. First Nation's health is under federal jurisdiction while health care is a provincial responsibility and most health services are provided under provincial jurisdiction and therefore require travel to access if you live on a remote reserve - yet travel costs are often not covered by Health Canada.
Apparently, Thunder Bay's shipyard facility - a facility with a long and storied history dating back to the early 20th century - will soon be up and running again and creating 25 full-time jobs.
This is quite an interesting story relating to municipal public finances. The City of Thunder Bay is looking to save money by reducing the current limit of containers for residential garbage collection to two. Apparently, these changes along with others will eliminate one truck and two positions through attrition resulting in savings of $150,000. Needless to say, I am not particularly impressed with savings of $150,000 on a annual tax levy that is growing at over 3 percent a year and is approaching 200 million dollars. Reducing the garbage limit is something that has been done in many other cities but it has been accompanied by substantial expansion of convenient recycling options. This is not the case in Thunder Bay. However, what is even more interesting to me is that businesses and apartment buildings are being excluded from the limit. What this means is that residential ratepayers - who are now responsible for two-thirds of the tax levy - are seeing a 33 percent reduction in their service - while other ratepayers are seeing no change in their service level. This essentially means that residential ratepayers are going to further subsidize the garbage service collection of non-residential rate payers.
Essentially, Ontario electricity policy has become a case of either pay more now or pay more later with the distribution of payment over time a function of the temporal distance until the next election. Editorial reaction is not particularly positive. And, businesses are excluded from these hydro rate reductions apparently. Besides, I just received a letter from my local hydro utility dated March 2nd that has "re-adjusted" my monthly billing amount and in an odd coincidence my new monthly bill just went up 17 percent!
