Economic News Around the North: April 14th Edition

Well, we are heading into the Easter weekend.  Spring is a time of rebirth and who knows, after two decades of slow growth, perhaps the north's economy will finally resurrect itself in the third. On the other hand, Good Friday this year coincides with the anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic. Here are some of the stories that I felt were of economic significance for northern Ontario over the last week or so. 

Gas prices soar in city. TbNewswatch, April 13th, 2017.

Well the price of gas has shot up again, just in time for a long weekend but it is a phenomenon that hit the entire province.  If you want some insight on Canadian gasoline prices in general, there is an old post I did on gas prices on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative that also attracted quite a few comments that provided some interesting points.  The long and short, in my opinion, prices are higher because the companies can get away with charging more.  Price differentials across regions have converged over time and this may signify greater market power on the part of gas companies.

Alexander Henry one step closer to returning home. CBCThunderBay. April 11th, 2017.

There seems to be some support for relocating the former icebreaker Alexander Henry from Kingston to Thunder Bay's waterfront.  In principle, this will be an excellent addition to the waterfront as it can serve as the core exhibit for a transportation museum.  This might mesh in nicely with the plans for a grain museum which is being worked on by Nancy Perozzo's group.  As well, there are plans to relocate the Thunder Bay Art Gallery to the waterfront also.  When one looks at the restaurant development in the Waterfront area combined with the location of Magnus Theatre and the long-term plans to place an Events Centre in the area, one can finally see a substantial entertainment district coming into shape.  The one caveat - customers and money.  I know, presenting caveats and pros and cons does not go over well with local movers and shakers who prefer expressions of cheerful mindless optimism when it comes to economic development in the north but Thunder Bay's tax base is under stress and the city's population base and market size are limited.  Can Thunder Bay become a tourism destination with its central Canadian waterfront marked as "The Mid-Coast?"  Who really knows?

Thunder Bay taxi bylaw causes concern for council, taxi companies.  CBCThunderBay. April 11th, 2017.

Getting a taxi in Thunder Bay is a ordeal.  If you ever needed a taxi in the middle of a weekday afternoon on short notice, forget it as they are all engaged in "school runs". This is another example of how dependent even the private sector in northern Ontario is on public sector spending.  I won't even get into trying to get a taxi at the airport or late on a weekend after an evening out or the price.  Supply constraints have been very profitable for Thunder Bay taxi companies and by taking five years to re-write the taxi bylaws, Thunder Bay City Council has been aiding and abetting a cozy oligopoly.

Other Thunder Bay economic news:

First salty arrives in port. TbNewswatch. April 8th, 2017.

Grain shipments make for busy March at Thunder Bay port. CBCThunderBay. April 5, 2017.

Well, this has all been rather Thunder Bay centric to this point.  In other news:

Sudbury loses 400 jobs in March. SudburyStar.com. April 7th, 2017.

Yet, things are going to get better as the Canada Revenue Agency has announced it is adding 543 full-time jobs to the Sudbury tax centre.

Council sets criteria for location of new events centre. CBCNewsSudbury. April 12th, 2017.

Sudbury appears to be moving forward at a rapid clip with a site selection team in place.  However, four of the five members of the selection team appear to be directly related to Sudbury's municipal government with a consultant from PWC as the fifth.  It would have been useful from an optics point of view to have a more arm's length group of experts.  Apparently the criteria for site selection includes cost, economic impact and parking.  In the end, it is all about weighting the criteria and if parking carries the biggest weight, then one should expect the greenfield site outside of the downtown as the final destination.

Here are some interesting items from North Bay.

Casinos siphoned millions from Sudbury, Brantford and Thunder Bay in 2014-15. Nuggest.ca. April 12th, 2017.

And in another tourism infrastructure related story. ..

North Bay city council votes to keep Dionne house. CBCNewsSudbury. April 5th, 2017.

The only surprise here is that the City of North Bay was actually considering giving the historically significant house to a group that was going to move it to a "pioneer village" project 70 miles south of North Bay.  Why stop there, maybe they should consider moving it to Thunder Bay's waterfront - a nice plot of land between the yet to be completed hotel and the new condos?  

And in the relentless and ongoing efforts to attract new business activity via marketing techniques....

Invest Sault Ste. Marie website launched. SaultOnline. April 6th, 2017.

Sault needs to find gaming 'sweet spot'. SaultStar.com. April 9th, 2017.

And in Timmins, this story about the mining sector.

Gold is the new economic driver for Ontario mining. TimminsPress.com. April 12th, 2017.

There were a number of interesting comments made. I was particularly intrigued by the Red Tape Challenge - an Ontario government consultation program for mining asking for input on what could be done to make the mining industry work better with government.   Dealing with red tape by engaging in yet more consultation seems like a typically Ontario way to address questions of efficiency and regulatory barriers.  However, with respect to gold as a driver, according to the president of the Ontario Mining Association:

“What has changed in Ontario in the last 10 years is that gold is now a larger contributor than nickel and copper. That’s new and it is a combination of the price of the commodities and the number of new discoveries of gold and the new investments around gold,” said Hodgson.

Have a nice long weekend.

How Many Jobs Have Been Created in Thunder Bay?

One of Thunder Bay's Members of Parliament and currently Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour - Patty Hajdu - asserted in a letter to the Chronicle-Journal this morning that "In the last eight months alone, the Canadian economy has created more than a quarter-million full-time jobs. In fact, 1,600 jobs new jobs have been created here in Thunder Bay since we were elected."  Needless to say, this piqued my curiosity and so I went off to Statistics Canada to see what Thunder Bay's total employment numbers have looked like since October of 2015 - the year the Trudeau Liberals  took office.

The results are provided in Figure 1, and are monthly seasonally un-adjusted total employment (three month moving average) for the Thunder Bay CMA.  The numbers show rising monthly employment from October 2015 to August 2016 and a decline since.  In October of 2015, total employment in Thunder Bay was 59,100 jobs and the total employed reached a peak of 61,300 by August of 2016.  This represents an increase of 2,200 jobs.  However, between August of 2016 and March of 2017, employment then declines from 61,300 to 59,300 - a drop of 2,000 jobs.  So, based on these numbers, from October of 2015 to March of 2017 Thunder Bay goes from 59,100 to 59,300 jobs for an increase of 200 jobs.



Of course, while these numbers are three month moving averages, they are not adjusted for seasonality. If we go from October 2015 to October 2016, employment grows from 59,100 to 60,800 for an increase of 1,700 jobs.  If we go from March 2016 to March 2017, we see total employment grow from 59,500 to 59,300 jobs - a decline of 200 jobs.  Based on Figure 1, Thunder Bay may have indeed seen the creation of 1,600 new jobs since the election of the Trudeau Liberal government but it also appears to have lost nearly as many jobs making for little in the addition of net new employment.
 

Evaluating Northern Ontario's Growth Plan-Part III: Investment Spending

This is the third in a series of posts in which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario, which was released on March 4, 2011.  The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The goal was strengthening the economy of the North by:

• Diversifying the region's traditional resource-based industries
• Stimulating new investment and entrepreneurship
• Nurturing new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.

While the provincial government did commit itself to the development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the availability of readily accessible public data.  My first post was an overview of the series while my second post looked at employment. In this third post, I will be looking at new investment spending as measured by building permits.

Evaluating Northern Ontario's Growth Plan-Part II: Employment Generation

This is the second in a series of posts in which I will present evidence in an attempt to evaluate the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario, which was released on March 4, 2011.  The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to strengthen the economy of the North by:

• Diversifying the region's traditional resource-based industries
• Stimulating new investment and entrepreneurship
• Nurturing new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.

While the provincial government did commit itself to the development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the availability of readily accessible public data. In this first post, I will be looking at employment.

Economic News Around Northern Ontario: April 2nd Edition

Well it has been a busy end of term not just on campus but across northern Ontario. Here are the items that caught my interest over this last week in terms of general economic significance for the region.  The first two stories deal with the MPAC assessments this week.

Commercial, industrial property reassessments 'absolutely devastating' says Thunder Bay council, CBC.ca. March 29^th, 2017.

 

Economists weigh in on municipalities' spat over property reassessments, CBC.ca. March 30^th, 2017.

This is a municipal public finance story that has been many years in the making.  Essentially, as a result of appeals and a ruling by MPAC, the City of Thunder Bay will have to refund $2 million to several retailers and grain elevator companies.  While this refund has been planned for, it does mean a reduction in revenues from these properties in the future.  This is part of a long-term trend away from business/industrial properties towards residential ratepayers and over the course of 25 years in Ontario has meant a shift in the share of property taxes away from the business/industrial sector and onto residential ratepayers.  While one might argue that in the past, the business/industrial sector was bearing too large a share, the situation has certainly gone the other way.  Of course, the real question is what should the optimal division be between the share of property taxes paid by residential ratepayers and business/industrial one.  In Thunder Bay, the situation has been aggravated by the industrial decline of the last 25 years which has seen several pulp and sawmills as well as grain elevators shut down,  For my  take on property taxation in Thunder Bay, see my January 24th 2017 post.  While there is certainly an economic case to be made about the division between residential and business property taxation, in the end the balance will be a political decision.

In other news:

 

Sudbury loses in 3rd bid for Canada Summer Games, CBC.ca. March 30^th, 2017.

The Niagara Region will be hosting the 2021 games beating out bids from Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa and Sudbury.  The Games are an opportunity to showcase your community and acquire some new infrastructure but at the same time they do come with some expenses.  Getting them can be a mixed blessing but they are fun.  I remember participating in the opening ceremonies of the 1981 games that were held in Thunder Bay.  I was much more agile as a dancer then.

Budget could transform FedNor: MP, Chronicle Journal, March 31^st, 2017.

A lot is being made about the $25 million boost to FedNor as some type of trans-formative change to the agency.  A similar spin in a story in North Bay.

Feds ‘rebuilding’ FedNor, nugget.ca. March 26^th, 2017. 

The fact remains that FedNor's budget a decade ago was $76 million and last year it was $31 million and the $25 million is being spread out over 5 years.  I guess I really would need to be sold on what FedNor actually is other than a fund to sprinkle some politically motivated funding  on assorted projects to give some semblance to the idea that the federal government cares about northern Ontario's economic development.  The minor increase in funding without some kind of vision of what FedNor is transforming to suggests treading water in a palliative care setting rather than trans-formative change.

In other news of concern to long-term regional infrastructure and the north's transportation role:

Soo Locks economic necessity; future worries USACE, Saultthisweek.com. March 28^th, 2017.

 The Chamber of Commerce did a big presentation in Timmins last week (They are coming to Thunder Bay April 21st).

 

Report cites challenges for Northern economy, TimminsPress.com. March 29^th, 2017.

 

 Other items:

North Bay commercial real estate: Leasing and sales to level off in 2017, North Bay Business Journal. March 21, 2017.

Facts ‘n’ Figures: Canadian mining by the numbers, The Northern Miner. March 28^th, 2017.

 This last item presents some numbers for the provinces but since all of the mining in Ontario is a northern Ontario economic activity, it provides an interesting snapshot.  Have a great week!

Economic News Around Northern Ontario: March 26th Edition

Here are some of the recent items I found to be of economic significance to northern Ontario.  If you are interested in the regional impact of the Federal budget this week from my perspective, see my previous post. There was also this somewhat more upbeat story on CBC:

First nations, northern infrastructure to benefit from federal budget.  CBC News Sudbury. March 23rd, 2017.

As well, the 25 million dollar boost to Fednor seems to have gotten some attention.  I guess in northern Ontario, 25 million dollars is considered alot of money and the source of much optimism.

FedNor gets $25-million funding boost. Sudburystar.com. March 24th, 2017.

In other upbeat news....

First ship of season arrives in Thunder Bay. Tbnewswatch. March 24th, 2017.

The arrival of the M.V. Manitoulin was a record breaking early arrival for the first ship and leads to the hope this is the start of another great shipping season for the Port of Thunder Bay.  The Port of Thunder Bay has been on an upward trend the last few years.

As well, it turns out Sunrise Records will be adding to Thunder Bay retail filling the hole left by the closure of HMV. See:

Thunder Bay indie store welcomes Sunrise.  CBC Thunder Bay. March 24th, 2017.

And the upbeat news continues all over the north.  In the Sault, despite concerns raised by the local Chamber of commerce at a public forum, the city's Mayor has assured everyone that municipal costs are under control.

City is controlling costs: mayor. Saultstar.com. March 24th, 2017.

After all, the city council in the Sault has shrunk from 12 to 10 saving $60,000 annually! However, to put $60,000 in perspective, keep in mind the total municipal levy for 2017 in the Sault is projected at 108.9 million dollars.

In terms of infrastructure, Timmins is opening a new hospice center  and the optimism was contagious also spilling over to a generally positive view of certain elements of the federal budget by the Timmins Chamber of Commerce.  Perhaps some of that new Fednor funding is headed towards highway construction in the Timmins area. See:

Timmins might choose concrete highways.  Timminspress.com. March 24th, 2017.

Hopefully, concrete might do a better job withstanding the potholes that have been plaguing me as I drive around Thunder Bay.  It is difficult to remain upbeat when one's innards are constantly jarred by potholes.

Meanwhile, things are looking up in North Bay.  While North Bay's population, like much of that in northern Ontario is aging at a fast rate, it remains that there might be a silver (no pun intended) lining....

Growing seniors resource to north and south represents jobs.  Nugget.ca, March 25th, 2017.

Finally, this item in terms of potential impacts of alleviating access in remote First Nation communties:

Pilot project could see drones deliver much-needed items to northern Ontario First Nations. CBC Toronto. March 19th, 2017.

Have a great week!

Evaluating Northern Ontario's Growth Plan - Part I

The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario was released on March 4, 2011 and nearly six years on it is probably time to see what impact it has had on the economy of northern Ontario.  The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to strengthen the economy of the North by:

• Diversifying the region's traditional resource-based industries
• Stimulating new investment and entrepreneurship
• Nurturing new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.

Of course, evaluating the success of the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario can be a complicated endeavor as it is very important to decide what to measure.  The Plan itself did have a section on monitoring and performance measures – Section 8.4 that read as follows:

8.4 Monitoring and Performance Measures

8.4.1   The Minister of Infrastructure and the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry will jointly monitor overall implementation of this Plan and report on what progress provincial ministries and municipalities have made to implement the policies in this Plan.

8.4.2   The Minister of Infrastructure and the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry will work with external partners to develop a set of performance indicators to assist in Plan monitoring and reporting as set out in Policy 8.4.1.

8.4.3   Success in achieving this Plan's outcomes will, in part, be measured by assessing progress in:

1. attracting investment and business growth in Northern Ontario
2. diversifying the North's economic base
3. supporting education and skills development of the North's workforce
4. increasing the involvement of Aboriginal peoples in the northern economy
5. improving the connectivity of the northern population though information technologies.

It is further acknowledged that long-term progress in these areas requires sustained, co-ordinated efforts by the Province and all its external partners.

8.4.4   The Province is further committed to the development of performance measures for ministry-specific initiatives that support implementation of the policies in this Plan.

Now the indicators suggested by this section can be considered important indicators of success but actually measuring them is a much more difficult endeavor and in the end one will have to measure some of them indirectly.  While it might be possible to measure government investments in aboriginal education and skills development, how does one measure diversifying the North’s economic base or increasing the involvement of Aboriginal people’s in the northern economy? 

So in the absence to my knowledge of any official effort to yet present comprehensive evidence as to what the overall progress and evaluation of the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario has been to date, I have decided to devote several blog posts in the coming weeks to assessing the impact of the plan on economic performance and activity in northern Ontario. And of course, as an economist there are some pretty standard measures or indicators of what I would term to be economic growth.  After all, if something is called a "Growth Plan" then one needs to see growth over the time period spanned by the plan.   Stay tuned!

Economic News Around Northern Ontario: March 19th Edition

Well, another week has come and gone and there are many economic stories bubbling around northern Ontario and even farther afield with implications for northern Ontario.  For example, this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal reported on upcoming talks between the forest sector and the federal government on preparing for the upcoming Canada-US softwood lumber negotiations.  However, little information was provided in the story as to what strategy options are being explored as Canada moves into negotiations with the Trump administration on this file.

Stakes high for forestry sector, Chronicle-Journal March 19th, 2017.

The policies of the Trump administration will soon also be front and center with respect to environmental funding dealing with the Great Lakes.  The budget proposed in the United States has put forth rather large cuts to program spending and one area that will have a direct impact on northern Ontario is what seems to be the complete elimination of $300 million dollars annually for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative with plans shifting the responsibility onto state and local governments.  See:

Canadian politicians outraged at Trump Great Lakes funding cuts.  The Globe and Mail, March 17th, 2017.

In brighter news, while northern Ontario reports the lowest optimism when it comes to construction activity in the Ontario Construction Secretariat 2017 Construction confidence Indicator, it is nevertheless up from 2016 and part of that optimism is due to a number of post-secondary construction projects in Sudbury and North Bay at Laurentian University and Canadore College.  However, the Trump effect is again rearing its head here as: "Despite the boost in overall confidence, nearly half of the 500 contractors surveyed report they expect the Donald Trump presidency to have a negative or harmful effect on Ontario’s economy and construction industry. This sentiment is most acute in Windsor-Sarnia where 59 per cent of respondents believe Trump’s government will harm Ontario’s economy." See:

Post-secondary projects generate optimism in North Bay, Sudbury-survey. North Bay Nugget, March 16th, 2017.

In business activity and expansion news:

Explor Resources starts drilling program on Timmins-area property. Northern Ontario Business. March 16th, 2017.

Prime Gelato makes the leap to grocery stores and restaurant menus in Thunder Bay. CBC News. March 17th, 2017.

U.S. Coast Guard ready to break ice from Duluth to Thunder Bay. CBC News. March 15th, 2017.

Seminar offered to help local firms export to the U.S. Saultonline. March 14th, 2017.

When it comes to civic issues and municipal government, a couple of items.  The urban renewal legacy of the 1970s haunts us still.  In Thunder Bay, they are revisiting the future of Victoriaville Mall.  In the 1970s, both the north and south downtowns in Thunder Bay (corresponding to the old cities of Port Arthur and Fort William) received urban renewal makeovers that in the long run were less than successful.  The Keskus Mall in downtown Port Arthur was eventually demolished to make way for the Casino but Victoriaville which was built right on the main downtown intersection and permanently affected traffic patterns lingers on and apparently costs the City of Thunder Bay $500,000 annually.  Victoriaville hit tough sledding right off the bat in the recession of the early 1980s as its anchor store -the Chapples family store - went under.  Keskus did not lose its major retail anchor until the late1990s when Eaton's went under. 

Thunder Bay city council considers step towards Victoriaville mall demolition. CBC News. March 15th, 2017.

And in Sudbury, the big municipal fiscal issue is the contentious reorganization of its fire and paramedic services with a big meeting slated for March 21st.  For my take on the issue and links to some of the news stories, see my earlier blog post here.

In Sudbury mining news, see:

Vale to mothball century-old Ontario nickel mine. Mining.com. March 13th, 2017.

It is also Federal budget week with the budget coming down March 22nd and we will have to see what emerges specifically geared towards northern Ontario.  For my contribution to federal budget debate this week, see here. Have a great week. 

Economic News Around the North: March 12th Edition

Here are some of the items that caught my interest this week in terms of some economic significance for northern Ontario as well as more general interest.  A fair number of stories having to do with mining and the growing feeling that there is finally a resurgence in the mining sector.  A story in this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle Journal also mentioned that the Hemlo mine may have more life in it.   However, it is important to separate this from the hype regarding the Ring of Fire which faces a number of other obstacles (see my previous post).  As The Economist story referenced below noted: "The potential of “green” metals and minerals, which along with copper and cobalt include nickel, lithium and graphite, is adding to renewed excitement about investing in mining firms as they emerge from the wreckage of a $1trn splurge of over-investment during the China-led commodities supercycle, which began in the early 2000s. The most bullish argue that clean energy could be an even bigger source of demand than China has been in the past 15 years or so."

Ring of Fire, demand for critical elements driving future of Ontario mining. TimminsToday. March 8th, 2017.

The richest seam: Mining companies have dug themselves out of a hole.  The Economist. March11th, 2017.

Let the mining cash flow-through: Exploration industry applauds one-year extension of tax credit program. Northern Ontario Business. March 7th, 2017.

In other news, like Thunder Bay, Sudbury is also going through debate and discussion on a new arena and like iterations of the debate in Thunder Bay, location is an issue.  One view sees a new arena in the downtown area on the site of the current arena whereas another view wants it further afield.  Interesting point is the proposed price tag which comes in at $80 million dollars (plus another $20 million for land) which is  below what estimates ($114 million) for a new facility in Thunder Bay come in at. Sudbury is apparently also getting a new casino.

Will new arena plans dominate Sudbury's 2018 municipal election? CBC News Sudbury. March 8th, 2017.

Casino Operator will focus on Sudbury in May. Sudbury.com. March 11th, 2017.

It also turns out there is a bit of contention over OPG jobs which have been moved out of North Bay and partly to Timmins and Cornwall, Ontario.  Jobs are a scarce commodity in the north and the broader public sector has become a pillar of most communities.  When it comes to employment, I suppose the public sector giveth and the public sector taketh away.  

20 OPG jobs coming to Timmins. TimminsToday. March 6th, 2017.

North Bay mayor: Wynne meddled with OPG announcement to ride good presswave. Sudbury.com. March 7th, 2017.

While North Bay is unhappy with the OPG development, it can take consolation in new dealings with Russia.  I would imagine this will provide opportunities for travel.

Invest North Bay signs agreement with Russian investment group. Northern Ontario Business. March 8th, 2017.

And for those of you waiting for what will happen to redevelop HMV properties being vacated in the north, this item.

Sunrise Records announces expansion into Sault Ste. Marie. CBC News Sudbury. March 9th, 2017.

Thunder Bay is apparently not getting one yet.  However, residents of Thunder Bay can take some solace in its new transit development courtesy of The Beaverton and more seriously the proposed infrastructure spending on its recreational facilities at local schools.  Regarding the proposed infrastructure spending on track and field facilities, a student is quoted as saying: "It's an opportunity to play on a field like to play on a field like the people down in southern Ontario get to play (on)." I suppose we can all regard this development as helping to level the playing field with respect to southern Ontario at least with respect to sports, if not the use of the English language. However, it may be a long-term investment in health via exercise as other stories suggest the North may still not be a very healthy place relative to southern Ontario. See for example: Grim Data Emerging. The Chronicle Journal. March 12th, 2017. This story did not provide a regional breakdown on snowmobile deaths but the gender breakdown shows males are more likely to die in snowmobile accidents.  On a per capita basis, there are probably more deaths in the north.  In the week of February 22nd, there were five fatalities - one in Oro-Medonte, one in Thorton, two in Nipigon and one in Lindsay, Ontario.

Have a great week.

 

Economic News Around the North: March 3rd Edition

Well, this has been a busy week when it comes to news of economic significance for northern Ontario.  Here are some of the items that caught my interest with some occasional commentary.  Have a nice weekend!

Mining report card shows Ontario has room for improvement.  Northern Ontario Business. February 28th, 2017.

According to this report out of the Fraser Institute, Ontario has dropped to 18th place globally as an attractive place to do business in a mining company survey and ranking.

Sault Locks to open on March 25. Northern Ontario Business.  March 2nd, 2017.

Here's why health care funds for First Nations children aren't being spent. CBC News. March 3rd, 2017.

As is often the case, coordination and transactions costs are important elements in government and economic policy.  First Nation's health is under federal jurisdiction while health care is a provincial responsibility and most health services are provided under provincial jurisdiction and therefore require travel to access if you live on a remote reserve - yet travel costs are often not covered by Health Canada.

Thunder Bay shipyard owners reveal their plans. Tbnewswatch. February 28th, 2017.

Apparently, Thunder Bay's shipyard facility - a facility with a long and storied history dating back to the early 20th century - will soon be up and running again and creating 25 full-time jobs.

New garbage limit excludes apartment buildings and business. Tbnewswatch. February 28th, 2017.

This is quite an interesting story relating to municipal public finances.  The City of Thunder Bay is looking to save money by reducing the current limit of containers for residential garbage collection to two.  Apparently, these changes along with others will eliminate one truck and two positions through attrition resulting in savings of $150,000.  Needless to say, I am not particularly impressed with savings of $150,000 on a annual tax levy that is growing at over 3 percent a year and is approaching 200 million dollars.  Reducing the garbage limit is something that has been done in many other cities but it has been accompanied by substantial expansion of convenient recycling options.  This is not the case in Thunder Bay.  However, what is even more interesting to me is that businesses and apartment buildings are being excluded from the limit.  What this means is that residential ratepayers - who are now responsible for two-thirds of the tax levy - are seeing a 33 percent reduction in their service - while other ratepayers are seeing no change in their service level.  This essentially means that residential ratepayers are going to further subsidize the garbage service collection of non-residential rate payers.

A brief history of mining in Greater Sudbury. Sudbury.com. March 2, 2017.

Check out the historical footage on the accompanying video.

Timmins economic outlook predicts population decrease. Timminspress.com, February 26, 2017.

Mayor unable to confirm possible OPG job losses.  nugget.ca, March 1st, 2017.

And of course, what I think is the biggest story of the week given the energy intensive nature of northern Ontario economic activity...

Ontario cuts hydro bills by 17%, but ultimately it will cost ratepayers $1.4 billion a year more. Financial Post. March 2, 2017.

Essentially, Ontario electricity policy has become a case of either pay more now or pay more later with the distribution of payment over time a function of the temporal distance until the next election.  Editorial reaction is not particularly positive.  And, businesses are excluded from these hydro rate reductions apparently.  Besides, I just received a letter from my local hydro utility dated March 2nd that has "re-adjusted" my monthly billing amount and in an odd coincidence my new monthly bill just went up 17 percent!

Economic News Around the North: February 25th edition

Here are some of the stories that have some economic significance for northern Ontario over the last week that managed to catch my interest It was for the most part a relatively quiet week. Enjoy.

Investments in First Nations Infrastructure and Economies. Net News Ledger. February 25th, 2017.

Community accepts $99M settlement deal. Chronicle Journal. February 25th, 2017.

This settlement provides resources for the long-term economic sustainability of Fort William First Nation.  Investing the funds in an endowment would generate a stream of income in perpetuity available for investment in economic, social and infrastructure projects.

Marshalls coming to Thunder Bay in 2018. Tbnewswatch. February 24th, 2017.

Time to reignite Ring of Fire.  Sudbury Star. February 25th, 2017.

This one is an op-ed from one of the many candidates currently running for leadership of the Federal Conservative Party. It might be interesting if not entertaining to hear what Kevin O'Leary thinks about the Ring of Fire as a viable business proposition.

Local economy needs immigration, forum hears.  Saultthisweek.com. February 21st, 2017.

DSSAB issue dividing region. Timminspress.com. February 24th, 2017.

Expect these types of cost-sharing issues to become more common around the north given declining urban populations and rising taxes.

Brace for impact of U.S. softwood lumber duties. Northern Ontario Business. February 22nd, 2017.

Again, it is difficult to know where this issue might go.  We may get some insight on Canada in the world of Donald Trump from Derek Burney at his talk this week in Thunder Bay.

Economic News Around the North: February 17th Edition

Here is listing of some news stories across northern Ontario over the last few days that I feel are of some economic significance for the region.  There was actually quite a bit going on.  Have a nice weekend.

Economic News Around the North: February 10th Edition

Here is a listing of some of the major news stories around northern Ontario this week that in my view have some economic significance for the region.  Of course, much of the week's news was dominated by the release of the 2016 Census population counts.  Most of the stories in the regional media focused on local results (major centers actually saw declines) and there was little in the way of putting the results together for northern Ontario as a whole - though you can always see my post on the regional perspective. Enjoy and have a nice weekend.

Preparing Northern Ontario for the Future. Government of Ontario News. February 8th, 2017.

This was an item that does not seem to have been picked up by regional media but then despite the title of the release the actual report was a long-term report on Ontario's economy.  The long and short - population and economic growth are being concentrated in the GTA.

Population decline is a Northern Ontario thing, says mayor.  Timmins Today. February 9th, 2017.

Thunder Bay's population experiencing low growth. TBnewswatch. February 9th, 2017.

City Stalled; Stagnant growth, aging population present economic challenges. Chronicle-Journal. February 9th, 2017.

While the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (up 25 people from 2011), the city itself saw the loss of 450 people. However, it should be noted that in this story, Thunder Bay's Mayor was optimistic about the Ring of Fire and admitted being surprised by the numbers given that there had been indications of heightened economic activity like more building permits.  Given that the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (0% growth), surrounding municipalities like Neebing (3.5%), Oliver Paipoonge (3.3%) and Shuniah (2.2%) saw increases, and the City of Thunder Bay fell (-0.4%), one wonders if the Mayor is willing to draw any insights from the Tiebout Model of migration as to why people have essentially been leaving the city but population in surrounding areas has been growing?  I'd explain more but my time is limited.  Looking for analysis? Hey, where is that research chair on the northern Ontario economy?

Sudbury's economic outlook positive. Sudbury.com. February 9th, 2017.

Mayor optimistic, despite weak population growth. Sudbury Star. February 9th, 2017.

Census. Thousands leave northern Ontario cities over last 5 years. CBC News Sudbury. February 9th, 2017.

Greater Sudbury is growing, but more people moving to the outskirts. CBC News Sudbury. February 9th, 2017.

Well, despite Tiebout effects, Sudbury is still growing.

North Bay's population down 3.9%-census. North Bay Nugget. February 8th, 2017.

Mayor confused by decline in North Bay's population. North Bay Nugget. February 8th, 2017.

I am not confused at all.  Despite the increase in construction and building permits, there is really only so much government building projects can do.  Sometimes, you need a surge in private sector investment too.

Census data shows Sault population declining. Sault Star. February 8th, 2017.

How on earth did Jocelyn Township's population grow one-third in five years? SOOToday. February 10th, 2017.

Sounds like more insights from the Tiebout Model in the Sault also.