This is the second in a series of posts in
which I will present evidence in an attempt to evaluate the Growth Plan for
Northern Ontario, which was released on March 4, 2011.The 25-year plan was to guide
provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the aim of
strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to strengthen the
economy of the North by:
Diversifying
the region's traditional resource-based industries
Stimulating
new investment and entrepreneurship
Nurturing
new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data. In this first post, I will be
looking at employment.
Well it has been a busy end of term not just on campus but across northern Ontario. Here are the items that caught my interest over this last week in terms of general economic significance for the region. The first two stories deal with the MPAC assessments this week.
This is a municipal public finance story that has been many years in the making. Essentially, as a result of appeals and a ruling by MPAC, the City of Thunder Bay will have to refund $2 million to several retailers and grain elevator companies. While this refund has been planned for, it does mean a reduction in revenues from these properties in the future. This is part of a long-term trend away from business/industrial properties towards residential ratepayers and over the course of 25 years in Ontario has meant a shift in the share of property taxes away from the business/industrial sector and onto residential ratepayers. While one might argue that in the past, the business/industrial sector was bearing too large a share, the situation has certainly gone the other way. Of course, the real question is what should the optimal division be between the share of property taxes paid by residential ratepayers and business/industrial one. In Thunder Bay, the situation has been aggravated by the industrial decline of the last 25 years which has seen several pulp and sawmills as well as grain elevators shut down, For my take on property taxation in Thunder Bay, see my January 24th 2017 post. While there is certainly an economic case to be made about the division between residential and business property taxation, in the end the balance will be a political decision.
The Niagara Region will be hosting the 2021 games beating out bids from Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa and Sudbury. The Games are an opportunity to showcase your community and acquire some new infrastructure but at the same time they do come with some expenses. Getting them can be a mixed blessing but they are fun. I remember participating in the opening ceremonies of the 1981 games that were held in Thunder Bay. I was much more agile as a dancer then.
A lot is being made about the $25 million boost to FedNor as some type of trans-formative change to the agency. A similar spin in a story in North Bay.
The fact remains that FedNor's budget a decade ago was $76 million and last year it was $31 million and the $25 million is being spread out over 5 years. I guess I really would need to be sold on what FedNor actually is other than a fund to sprinkle some politically motivated funding on assorted projects to give some semblance to the idea that the federal government cares about northern Ontario's economic development. The minor increase in funding without some kind of vision of what FedNor is transforming to suggests treading water in a palliative care setting rather than trans-formative change.
In other news of concern to long-term regional infrastructure and the north's transportation role:
This last item presents some numbers for the provinces but since all of the mining in Ontario is a northern Ontario economic activity, it provides an interesting snapshot. Have a great week!
Here are some of the recent items I found to be of economic significance to northern Ontario. If you are interested in the regional impact of the Federal budget this week from my perspective, see my previous post. There was also this somewhat more upbeat story on CBC:
As well, the 25 million dollar boost to Fednor seems to have gotten some attention. I guess in northern Ontario, 25 million dollars is considered alot of money and the source of much optimism.
The arrival of the M.V. Manitoulin was a record breaking early arrival for the first ship and leads to the hope this is the start of another great shipping season for the Port of Thunder Bay. The Port of Thunder Bay has been on an upward trend the last few years.
As well, it turns out Sunrise Records will be adding to Thunder Bay retail filling the hole left by the closure of HMV. See:
And the upbeat news continues all over the north. In the Sault, despite concerns raised by the local Chamber of commerce at a public forum, the city's Mayor has assured everyone that municipal costs are under control.
After all, the city council in the Sault has shrunk from 12 to 10 saving $60,000 annually! However, to put $60,000 in perspective, keep in mind the total municipal levy for 2017 in the Sault is projected at 108.9 million dollars.
In terms of infrastructure, Timmins is opening a new hospice center and the optimism was contagious also spilling over to a generally positive view of certain elements of the federal budget by the Timmins Chamber of Commerce. Perhaps some of that new Fednor funding is headed towards highway construction in the Timmins area. See:
Hopefully, concrete might do a better job withstanding the potholes that have been plaguing me as I drive around Thunder Bay. It is difficult to remain upbeat when one's innards are constantly jarred by potholes.
Meanwhile, things are looking up in North Bay. While North Bay's population, like much of that in northern Ontario is aging at a fast rate, it remains that there might be a silver (no pun intended) lining....
The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario was released on March 4, 2011 and nearly six years on
it is probably time to see what impact it has had on the economy of northern
Ontario.The 25-year plan was to
guide provincial decision-making and investment in northern Ontario with the
aim of strengthening the regional economy and its ultimate goal was to
strengthen the economy of the North by:
Diversifying the region's traditional
resource-based industries
Stimulating new investment and
entrepreneurship
Nurturing new and emerging sectors with
high growth potential.
Of course, evaluating the success of the Growth Plan for
Northern Ontario can be a complicated endeavor as it is very important to
decide what to measure.The Plan
itself did have a section on monitoring and performance measures – Section 8.4 that
read as follows:
8.4 Monitoring and Performance Measures
8.4.1 The Minister of Infrastructure
and the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry will jointly
monitor overall implementation of this Plan and report on what progress
provincial ministries and municipalities have made to implement the policies in
this Plan.
8.4.2 The Minister of Infrastructure
and the Minister of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry will work with
external partners to develop a set of performance indicators to assist in Plan
monitoring and reporting as set out in Policy 8.4.1.
8.4.3 Success in achieving this
Plan's outcomes will, in part, be measured by assessing progress in:
attracting
investment and business growth in Northern Ontario
diversifying
the North's economic base
supporting
education and skills development of the North's workforce
increasing
the involvement of Aboriginal peoples in the northern economy
improving
the connectivity of the northern population though information
technologies.
It is
further acknowledged that long-term progress in these areas requires sustained,
co-ordinated efforts by the Province and all its external partners.
8.4.4 The Province is further
committed to the development of performance measures for ministry-specific
initiatives that support implementation of the policies in this Plan.
Now the indicators suggested by this section can be
considered important indicators of success but actually measuring them is a
much more difficult endeavor and in the end one will have to measure some of
them indirectly.While it might be
possible to measure government investments in aboriginal education and skills
development, how does one measure diversifying the North’s economic base or
increasing the involvement of Aboriginal people’s in the northern economy?
So in the absence to my knowledge of any official effort to yet
present comprehensive evidence as to what the overall progress and evaluation of
the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario has been to date, I have decided to devote
several blog posts in the coming weeks to assessing the impact of the plan on
economic performance and activity in northern Ontario. And of course, as an economist there are some pretty standard measures or indicators of what I would term to be economic growth. After all, if something is called a "Growth Plan" then one needs to see growth over the time period spanned by the plan. Stay tuned!
Well, another week has come and gone and there are many economic stories bubbling around northern Ontario and even farther afield with implications for northern Ontario. For example, this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal reported on upcoming talks between the forest sector and the federal government on preparing for the upcoming Canada-US softwood lumber negotiations. However, little information was provided in the story as to what strategy options are being explored as Canada moves into negotiations with the Trump administration on this file.
The policies of the Trump administration will soon also be front and center with respect to environmental funding dealing with the Great Lakes. The budget proposed in the United States has put forth rather large cuts to program spending and one area that will have a direct impact on northern Ontario is what seems to be the complete elimination of $300 million dollars annually for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative with plans shifting the responsibility onto state and local governments. See:
In brighter news, while northern Ontario reports the lowest optimism when it comes to construction activity in the Ontario Construction Secretariat 2017 Construction confidence Indicator, it is nevertheless up from 2016 and part of that optimism is due to a number of post-secondary construction projects in Sudbury and North Bay at Laurentian University and Canadore College. However, the Trump effect is again rearing its head here as: "Despite the boost in overall confidence, nearly half of the 500 contractors surveyed report they expect the Donald Trump presidency to have a negative or harmful effect on Ontario’s economy and construction industry. This sentiment is most acute in Windsor-Sarnia where 59 per cent of respondents believe Trump’s government will harm Ontario’s economy." See: Post-secondary projects generate optimism in North Bay, Sudbury-survey. North Bay Nugget, March 16th, 2017. In business activity and expansion news: Explor Resources starts drilling program on Timmins-area property. Northern Ontario Business. March 16th, 2017.
When it comes to civic issues and municipal government, a couple of items. The urban renewal legacy of the 1970s haunts us still. In Thunder Bay, they are revisiting the future of Victoriaville Mall. In the 1970s, both the north and south downtowns in Thunder Bay (corresponding to the old cities of Port Arthur and Fort William) received urban renewal makeovers that in the long run were less than successful. The Keskus Mall in downtown Port Arthur was eventually demolished to make way for the Casino but Victoriaville which was built right on the main downtown intersection and permanently affected traffic patterns lingers on and apparently costs the City of Thunder Bay $500,000 annually. Victoriaville hit tough sledding right off the bat in the recession of the early 1980s as its anchor store -the Chapples family store - went under. Keskus did not lose its major retail anchor until the late1990s when Eaton's went under.
And in Sudbury, the big municipal fiscal issue is the contentious reorganization of its fire and paramedic services with a big meeting slated for March 21st. For my take on the issue and links to some of the news stories, see my earlier blog post here.
It is also Federal budget week with the budget coming down March 22nd and we will have to see what emerges specifically geared towards northern Ontario. For my contribution to federal budget debate this week, see here. Have a great week.
Here
are some of the items that caught my interest this week in terms of some
economic significance for northern Ontario as well as more general interest.
A fair number of stories having to do with mining and the growing feeling that
there is finally a resurgence in the mining sector. A story in this morning's Thunder Bay Chronicle Journal also mentioned that the Hemlo mine may have more life in it. However, it is
important to separate this from the hype regarding the Ring of Fire which faces
a number of other obstacles (see my previous post). As The Economist story
referenced below noted: "The
potential of “green” metals and minerals, which along with copper and cobalt
include nickel, lithium and graphite, is adding to renewed excitement about
investing in mining firms as they emerge from the wreckage of a $1trn splurge
of over-investment during the China-led commodities supercycle, which began in
the early 2000s. The most bullish argue that clean energy could be an even
bigger source of demand than China has been in the past 15 years or so."
In
other news, like Thunder Bay, Sudbury is also going through debate and
discussion on a new arena and like iterations of the debate in Thunder Bay,
location is an issue. One view sees a new arena in the downtown area on
the site of the current arena whereas another view wants it further afield.
Interesting point is the proposed price tag which comes in at $80 million
dollars (plus another $20 million for land) which is below what estimates ($114 million) for a new facility in
Thunder Bay come in at. Sudbury is apparently also getting a new casino.
It
also turns out there is a bit of contention over OPG jobs which have been moved
out of North Bay and partly to Timmins and Cornwall, Ontario. Jobs are a
scarce commodity in the north and the broader public sector has become a pillar
of most communities. When it comes to employment, I suppose the public
sector giveth and the public sector taketh away.
While North Bay is unhappy with the OPG development, it can take
consolation in new dealings with Russia. I would imagine this will provide opportunities for travel.
Thunder
Bay is apparently not getting one yet. However, residents of
Thunder Bay can take some solace in its new transit development courtesy of The
Beaverton and more seriously the proposed infrastructure spending on its recreational facilities at local schools.
Regarding the proposed infrastructure spending on track and field facilities, a
student is quoted as saying: "It's
an opportunity to play on a field like to play on a field like the people down
in southern Ontario get to play (on)." I suppose we can all regard
this development as helping to level the playing field with respect to southern
Ontario at least with respect to sports, if not the use of the English
language. However, it may be a long-term investment in health via exercise as
other stories suggest the North may still not be a very healthy place relative to
southern Ontario. See for example:Grim Data Emerging. The Chronicle Journal. March
12th, 2017.This story did not
provide a regional breakdown on snowmobile deaths but the gender breakdown
shows males are more likely to die in snowmobile accidents. On a per
capita basis, there are probably more deaths in the north. In the week of
February 22nd, there were five fatalities - one in Oro-Medonte, one in
Thorton, two in Nipigon and one in Lindsay, Ontario.
Well, this has been a busy week when it comes to news of economic significance for northern Ontario. Here are some of the items that caught my interest with some occasional commentary. Have a nice weekend!
According to this report out of the Fraser Institute, Ontario has dropped to 18th place globally as an attractive place to do business in a mining company survey and ranking.
As is often the case, coordination and transactions costs are important elements in government and economic policy. First Nation's health is under federal jurisdiction while health care is a provincial responsibility and most health services are provided under provincial jurisdiction and therefore require travel to access if you live on a remote reserve - yet travel costs are often not covered by Health Canada.
Apparently, Thunder Bay's shipyard facility - a facility with a long and storied history dating back to the early 20th century - will soon be up and running again and creating 25 full-time jobs.
This is quite an interesting story relating to municipal public finances. The City of Thunder Bay is looking to save money by reducing the current limit of containers for residential garbage collection to two. Apparently, these changes along with others will eliminate one truck and two positions through attrition resulting in savings of $150,000. Needless to say, I am not particularly impressed with savings of $150,000 on a annual tax levy that is growing at over 3 percent a year and is approaching 200 million dollars. Reducing the garbage limit is something that has been done in many other cities but it has been accompanied by substantial expansion of convenient recycling options. This is not the case in Thunder Bay. However, what is even more interesting to me is that businesses and apartment buildings are being excluded from the limit. What this means is that residential ratepayers - who are now responsible for two-thirds of the tax levy - are seeing a 33 percent reduction in their service - while other ratepayers are seeing no change in their service level. This essentially means that residential ratepayers are going to further subsidize the garbage service collection of non-residential rate payers.
Essentially, Ontario electricity policy has become a case of either pay more now or pay more later with the distribution of payment over time a function of the temporal distance until the next election. Editorial reaction is not particularly positive. And, businesses are excluded from these hydro rate reductions apparently. Besides, I just received a letter from my local hydro utility dated March 2nd that has "re-adjusted" my monthly billing amount and in an odd coincidence my new monthly bill just went up 17 percent!
Here are some of the stories that have some economic significance for northern Ontario over the last week that managed to catch my interest It was for the most part a relatively quiet week. Enjoy.
This settlement provides resources for the long-term economic sustainability of Fort William First Nation. Investing the funds in an endowment would generate a stream of income in perpetuity available for investment in economic, social and infrastructure projects.
This one is an op-ed from one of the many candidates currently running for leadership of the Federal Conservative Party. It might be interesting if not entertaining to hear what Kevin O'Leary thinks about the Ring of Fire as a viable business proposition.
Again, it is difficult to know where this issue might go. We may get some insight on Canada in the world of Donald Trump from Derek Burney at his talk this week in Thunder Bay.
Here is listing of some news stories across northern Ontario
over the last few days that I feel are of some economic significance for the
region.There was actually quite a
bit going on. Have a nice weekend.
Here is a listing of some of the major news stories around northern Ontario this week that in my view have some economic significance for the region. Of course, much of the week's news was dominated by the release of the 2016 Census population counts. Most of the stories in the regional media focused on local results (major centers actually saw declines) and there was little in the way of putting the results together for northern Ontario as a whole - though you can always see my post on the regional perspective. Enjoy and have a nice weekend.
This was an item that does not seem to have been picked up by regional media but then despite the title of the release the actual report was a long-term report on Ontario's economy. The long and short - population and economic growth are being concentrated in the GTA.
While the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (up 25 people from 2011), the city itself saw the loss of 450 people. However, it should be noted that in this story, Thunder Bay's Mayor was optimistic about the Ring of Fire and admitted being surprised by the numbers given that there had been indications of heightened economic activity like more building permits. Given that the Thunder Bay CMA remained stable (0% growth), surrounding municipalities like Neebing (3.5%), Oliver Paipoonge (3.3%) and Shuniah (2.2%) saw increases, and the City of Thunder Bay fell (-0.4%), one wonders if the Mayor is willing to draw any insights from the Tiebout Model of migration as to why people have essentially been leaving the city but population in surrounding areas has been growing? I'd explain more but my time is limited. Looking for analysis? Hey, where is that research chair on the northern Ontario economy?
I am not confused at all. Despite the increase in construction and building permits, there is really only so much government building projects can do. Sometimes, you need a surge in private sector investment too.
Here are some stories over the last week from across northern Ontario that I feel have some significance for the region's economy. Have a nice weekend.
And for those of you who believe that the context of leadership does matter and that government leadership should aspire to formal and decorous behavior in order to help foster a community environment attractive to business and economic activity, there are these:
Here are some new items that I found to be of interest with respect to the economy of northern Ontario over the last week or so. Some are not quite what they seem - North Bay (and Thunder Bay) do well by not making this list. Have a nice weekend. Livio.
Here is a listing of some stories around northern Ontario
over the last few days of economic significance for the region. Congratulations to Thunder Bay International Airport and Laurentian University for their milestones. Enjoy.
Today, the Northern Policy Institute was finally announced by the
Ontario government simultaneously at Laurentian and Lakehead Universities with
the news that the institute will be jointly housed at Lakehead and Laurentian
with a 10 member board overseeing the operation and with the search currently
underway for a CEO.This is a process
that has been a long time in the making starting from the original North
Superior Planning Board Report in 2007 on a policy institute for Northwestern
Ontario and then the morphing of the concept into a pan-northern institute
through the 2008 Rosehart Report and then the 2011 Northern Ontario Growth
Plan. The idea of a policy institute definitely caught the interest of the provincial government given that during this long interim it provided 5 million dollars to University of Toronto to fund the Mowat Centre in 2010 - a public policy institute to research issues from an Ontario perspective.
According to the press release:
The
institute, an independent, not-for-profit organization, will monitor the
implementation of the Growth
Plan for Northern Ontario and make provincial policy recommendations for
the region. It will work with northern municipalities, post-secondary
institutions, research groups, Aboriginal organizations, francophone groups and
industry to set priorities and directions for northern development.
This is very good news for Northern Ontario as it provides
the recognition that there needs to be research and policy analysis on
economic, social and business issues in the North.The Presidents of both Lakehead and
Laurentian are to be commended for their work leading up to today’s
announcements as are many of the local community leaders and politicians who
devoted time to what at many times seemed to be a byzantine task with no end in
sight.
Having followed the Northern Ontario economy and regional
economic development policy for over twenty years and researching and commenting
on issues affecting the region, it is reassuring personally for me to know that
in a sense it will be possible to pass on the torch and finally move on
confident in the knowledge that there will finally be the commitment of
resources for the study of Northern Ontario issues.Despite popular perception (even at the
university where I work), as an academic economist, research and public commentary on northern
Ontario or the Thunder Bay economy was never my main area of academic interest.My fields are public finance and economic
history and “northern” work took much time away from those endeavors.While I enjoyed interacting with the local
media and was always treated very well and fairly by all, this activity also
took a great deal of time in the sense that it often meant completely
interrupting your train of thought.Over
the last while, I have been devoting more time to interests in health economics
and economic history and less to the North and so the actual operationalization
of the institute comes at a good time.
I was born and raised in Northern Ontario and as an academic
I made the sustained effort to apply my skills and knowledge to local and
regional public policy because I felt it was important to give something back
to the community and there was so little analysis of northern Ontario issues.Over the years, many
have thanked me for this work via conversations and personal notes whether it
was for columns in the Chronicle-Journal, interviews on TBT or CBC Radio and
most recently for my blogging on Northern Economist.Of course, in the process I also irritated a great many people.I do not apologize for that.Politicians and society’s leaders need to
realize that true university academics are passionate and committed researchers who speak their
minds and not cheerleaders to be trotted out as a pretty backdrop at a moments
notice for the pet issue of the day.Those politicians who think academics should simply provide blanket endorsements
for government actions and policies reveal just how little respect they have
for knowledge and education and the people employed in those fields.
As for the future of the Northern Policy Institute (NPI), I
would be remiss as an academic in not offering a final frank and honest
assessment.It is a great idea
and concept but the fact that its role will be to “monitor the implementation
of the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario” in essence undermines both its
independence and its effectiveness as an advocate for the region.Of course, these are just the words of a
press release and the reality will be in implementation but the board of the NPI
needs ensure that the institute sets its own research and policy agenda in
terms of collecting data on economic, social and business issues that reflect
the region’s priorities.If it is
simply a mouthpiece to support the latest government policy initiative in the
North, then what is the point?
That’s all folks!
For additional blog postings on public policy and economics, visit my material on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative. You will be able to continue to access Northern Economist 2.0 postings on this blog as well as my previous material at the old Northern Economist site for the next while.
