The release by Statistics Canada of a second series of data from the 2016 Census on age and sex, and type of dwelling shows just how much Canada's population age distribution has changed. In 1851, 45 percent of Canada population was aged 14 years or less while only 2.5% was 65 years and older. In 2016, only 16.6 percent of the population was aged 14 years or less while 16.9 percent was aged grater than 65 years. As noted in the release, for the first time Canada's population of seniors outnumbered its children (5.9 million seniors versus 5.8 million aged 14 years or less). It is truly a new age.
When the results are examined by CMA, it turns out that large urban centers are younger than the national average. Canada had 16.9 percent of their population aged 65 years and over and 16.6 percent aged 14 years or less. In terms of seniors, the largest proportions were in Trois-Rivieres (22.3%), Peterborough (22.2%) and St. Catharines-Niagara (21.8%) while the lowest where in the west: Saskatoon (12.8%), Edmonton (12.3 percent) and Calgary (11%). As for those aged 14 years and below, the largest proportions were again in the west: Lethbridge (19.1%), Saskatoon (18.9%) and Calgary (18.8%). The smallest were in Trois-Rivieres (14.3%), Kelowna (14.2%) and Victoria (13.1%).
The two northern Ontario centers of Thunder Bay and Sudbury were generally on the older side with Sudbury coming out slightly younger. Thunder Bay ranked 8th out of 35 CMAs in the proportion of seniors (19.8%) and 32nd out of 35 in the proportion aged 14 years or less (14.6%). Sudbury was 12th in the proportion of seniors (18.3%) and 25th in the proportion of children (15.5%). Needless to say, an aging population has implications for future economic growth and these figures suggest that northern Ontario - as represented by Thunder Bay and Sudbury - faces a future of continued slower growth.
Northern Economist 2.0
Monday 8 May 2017
Sunday 7 May 2017
Evaluating Northern Ontario's Growth Plan-Part V: Economic Diversification
This is the fifth in a series of posts in
which I am presenting evidence evaluating the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario,
which was released on March 4, 2011.
The 25-year plan was to guide provincial decision-making and investment
in northern Ontario with the aim of strengthening the regional economy. The
goal was strengthening the economy of the North by:
- Diversifying the region's traditional resource-based industries
- Stimulating new investment and entrepreneurship
- Nurturing new and emerging sectors with high growth potential.
While the provincial government did commit itself to the
development of performance measures for ministry specific initiatives that
supported the implementation of the plan, I will be using a broader set of
indicators of overall economic performance that are supported by the
availability of readily accessible public data.
My first post was an overview while my second post looked at
employment. My third post looked
at new investment spending as measured by building permits and my fourth post
looked at consumer and business bankruptcies as an indicator of economic
health. In this fifth post, I will be looking at changes in the composition of
employment between 2011 and 2016 as an indicator of diversification.
Measuring diversification can be a complicated issue. Is a diversified economy one more reliant on services rather than primary industries - in which case we are already there as the bulk of employment in northern Ontario is service oriented. Is a diversified economy one in which we are less reliant on resource extraction or on any one sector? Given the growing reliance on public sector employment in northern Ontario one might argue we have become less diversified in recent years. In short, any measure of economic diversity is bound to be imperfect.
Measuring diversification can be a complicated issue. Is a diversified economy one more reliant on services rather than primary industries - in which case we are already there as the bulk of employment in northern Ontario is service oriented. Is a diversified economy one in which we are less reliant on resource extraction or on any one sector? Given the growing reliance on public sector employment in northern Ontario one might argue we have become less diversified in recent years. In short, any measure of economic diversity is bound to be imperfect.
Tuesday 25 April 2017
Economic News Around the North: April 25th Edition
It has been a very busy few days when it comes to economic news affecting northern Ontario. Here is a quick summary of stories:
Well, the softwood lumber dispute is back. Just as the industry in northern Ontario was beginning to recover from the forest sector crisis, there is going to be a tariff on softwood lumber. The rates apparently range from 3% to 24%. Resolute is facing a 12.82 percent tariff with other producers in northern Ontario apparently getting the blanket tariff of 19.88 percent.
Canada vows to fight 'unfair and punitive duty' as Trump slaps tariff on softwood lumber. Financial Post. April 25th, 2017.
Ontario is launching its basic income pilot project and the northern Ontario city selected to participate is Thunder Bay (along with Lindsay and Hamilton) where about 1,000 households will be selected to participate. According to the news item reported here: "A single person could receive up to about $17,000 a year, minus half of any income he or she earns. A couple could receive up to $24,000 per year. People with disabilities could receive up to $6,000 more per year."
Ontario basic income pilot to launch in Hamilton, Lindsay and Thunder Bay. CBC News, April 24, 2017.
I would imagine that none of the Thunder Bay recipients basic income will be residents of the new housing development approved by Thunder Bay City council this week. A 49 lot subdivision was approved that really is a testament to urban sprawl and an example of poor long-term financial planning given the costs of servicing the infrastructure. Ultimately a three kilometer sewer line will have to be extended from Parkdale to the new subdivision. That is a long sewer line to put through very low urban density areas.
Maplewood Estates expansion approved by Thunder Bay city council. CBC News, Thunder Bay, April 25th, 2017.
In other news around the north.
New flight training centre could create up to 150 jobs in Sudbury. Northern Ontario Business. April 18th, 2017.
Northern Ontario railway still struggling. SudburyStar.com. April 25th, 2017.
The release of the latest in a series of Northern Policy Institute reports on boosting immigration.
Project aims to attract immigrants to the North. Sault Star, April 20th, 2017.
Decline in available workers a growing concern. Timminpress.com. April 18th, 2017.
Also in the Sault:
Ontario Supporting Craft Brewery Expansion in Sault Ste. Marie. Ontario.ca, April 21st, 2017.
City pleads the need for Essar's tax money. Sault Star. April 19th, 2017.
Some controversy still in North Bay regarding a new casino project.
Casino risky for economy. Nugget.ca., April 20th, 2017.
Is help on the way for northern Ontario from the federal government? Apparently: "The federal government is working to attract jobs and qualified people to Northern Ontario in an attempt to turn around the loss of population – particularly young people – according to the federal minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development."
"All-hands on deck" needed to reverse trend-minister. Nugget.ca. April 20th, 2017. It was not exactly specified if the ship was heading into stormy waters or was sinking and needed to be abandoned.
And remember, Thursday is budget day in Ontario. For my take on what to expect? See this.
Have a great week.
Well, the softwood lumber dispute is back. Just as the industry in northern Ontario was beginning to recover from the forest sector crisis, there is going to be a tariff on softwood lumber. The rates apparently range from 3% to 24%. Resolute is facing a 12.82 percent tariff with other producers in northern Ontario apparently getting the blanket tariff of 19.88 percent.
Canada vows to fight 'unfair and punitive duty' as Trump slaps tariff on softwood lumber. Financial Post. April 25th, 2017.
Ontario is launching its basic income pilot project and the northern Ontario city selected to participate is Thunder Bay (along with Lindsay and Hamilton) where about 1,000 households will be selected to participate. According to the news item reported here: "A single person could receive up to about $17,000 a year, minus half of any income he or she earns. A couple could receive up to $24,000 per year. People with disabilities could receive up to $6,000 more per year."
Ontario basic income pilot to launch in Hamilton, Lindsay and Thunder Bay. CBC News, April 24, 2017.
I would imagine that none of the Thunder Bay recipients basic income will be residents of the new housing development approved by Thunder Bay City council this week. A 49 lot subdivision was approved that really is a testament to urban sprawl and an example of poor long-term financial planning given the costs of servicing the infrastructure. Ultimately a three kilometer sewer line will have to be extended from Parkdale to the new subdivision. That is a long sewer line to put through very low urban density areas.
Maplewood Estates expansion approved by Thunder Bay city council. CBC News, Thunder Bay, April 25th, 2017.
In other news around the north.
New flight training centre could create up to 150 jobs in Sudbury. Northern Ontario Business. April 18th, 2017.
Northern Ontario railway still struggling. SudburyStar.com. April 25th, 2017.
The release of the latest in a series of Northern Policy Institute reports on boosting immigration.
Project aims to attract immigrants to the North. Sault Star, April 20th, 2017.
Decline in available workers a growing concern. Timminpress.com. April 18th, 2017.
Also in the Sault:
Ontario Supporting Craft Brewery Expansion in Sault Ste. Marie. Ontario.ca, April 21st, 2017.
City pleads the need for Essar's tax money. Sault Star. April 19th, 2017.
Some controversy still in North Bay regarding a new casino project.
Casino risky for economy. Nugget.ca., April 20th, 2017.
Is help on the way for northern Ontario from the federal government? Apparently: "The federal government is working to attract jobs and qualified people to Northern Ontario in an attempt to turn around the loss of population – particularly young people – according to the federal minister of Innovation, Science and Economic Development."
"All-hands on deck" needed to reverse trend-minister. Nugget.ca. April 20th, 2017. It was not exactly specified if the ship was heading into stormy waters or was sinking and needed to be abandoned.
And remember, Thursday is budget day in Ontario. For my take on what to expect? See this.
Have a great week.
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